The Obligatory Bobby Ryan PostNovember 29, 2011, by
As per Nick Kypreos, the Anaheim Ducks are shopping star RW Bobby Ryan. Ryan is an elite talent and he is incredibly young, just 24 years old. The former second overall pick in 2005 has had a bit of a rough go of it to start the year, with “just” 11 points (7-4-11) in 23 games thus far. That is a far cry from his usual output of about 35-30-65, but it still puts him on pace for just under 30 goals, and just under 50 points. Not too shabby, but not worth the $5.1 million contract he has through the 2014-2015 season.
Let’s start with what a package for Ryan would be. We can start with the packages for Ilya Kovalchuk and Marian Hossa, which included two young NHL caliber players, a top prospect, and a first round pick. However, this trade is not like the Kovalchuk or Hossa trades. Kovalchuk and Hossa were headed towards unrestricted free agency, and were not 24 years old. Ryan hasn’t even peaked yet and is under contract for another three years after this one. The price will be higher.
From a Rangers standpoint, the conversation begins with a Brandon Dubinsky/Artem Anisimov/Derek Stepan, a Chris Kreider/Christian Thomas, and a first round pick. The Ducks also need a defenseman, so expect a Dan Girardi/Mike Sauer/Ryan McDonagh/Dylan McIlrath to also be discussed in any potential trade. Looks like with a package of Dubinsky, Sauer, Kreider, and a first, we have reached the requirements of this sort of trade. But that price seems very steep.
Let’s take a step back and realize that those forwards are top nine wingers, and the defensemen are top four defensemen. This has already been established league wide. Including both in a trade with Kreider is a severe over payment by the Rangers. In actuality the Rangers would be more inclined to include someone like Ryan Bourque, who is far from a sure thing, in the deal should it include two high quality NHL players. As the quality of NHL caliber talent provided goes up, the quality of prospects provided goes down. It’s an inverse relationship.
Of course, if the Rangers are only willing to pony up one of a Sauer/Dubinsky type, then Kreider is again back in the conversation. It’s tough to really gauge what team is looking for. The Ducks are relatively weak on defense, and don’t have many prospects in the system. That will come into play later on.
Personally, I don’t think the Rangers and Ducks make good trading partners. The Ducks are going to want to gut the Rangers for Ryan, and Glen Sather has been adamant about not doing that for anyone. There will be talks and rumors, but I don’t see this happening.
Side note: When playing Armchair GM, remember this post. Particularly the bottom one. No team wants your scraps.