Blue Seat Bookie: 1.7.23 – Carolina, Buffalo, and Ottawa bets, plus today’s DFS picks
Welcome to another edition of Blue Seat Bookie. Today is a solid NHL slate with a ton of value picks. I am not personally endorsing any of the massive underdog matchups like Detroit’s ML against Toronto, but plenty of value if you want to go that route. Here are the three though that I am personally looking at being the most promising of bringing good return on your betting investment:
Define the Great Money Line: (1-0)
Buffalo Sabres defeat the Minnesota Wild +100
The Buffalo Sabres might be one of the most fun teams to watch in the NHL right now. Tage Thompson has not only turned into a superstar the last 2 years, but has become this unicorn of development. He is leading this team in every scoring category and is well on pace for 60 goals this year. MVP candidate if they make the playoffs? They will be going up against a Minnesota Wild squad that has found their legs in recent weeks, but are not favored all that much in this matchup.
I think this ends up being a one goal game, and comes down to either OT or a shootout. The Sabres have found a formula this season in particular and being able to get games into OT and praying for the coin flip to go their way. The hockey fan in me wants this to be a high scoring shootout like game, but I wonder if we see like a 3-2 game with lots of scoring chances and big saves on both sides. Should be a must watch if you are able to tonight.
Pull up the Covers: (0-1)
This to me is the safest bet of the day. Carolina lost their last game putting up 67 shots on goal in regulation. That is an absolute outlier in that they should win that sort of game 9 times out of ten. Columbus is in a year where they are just trying to build their next core, and develop their talent. They don’t care about their wins and losses this year. Although, from an individual standpoint, Johnny Gaudreau is having a great season for them and is showing that he was worth the contract.
If they can properly build around him, they will become serious players in a Metropolitan division that will be changing in the next couple of years as the Ovechkin’s and the Crosby’s, Malkin’s, and Letang’s of the division retire. But that’s a different story for a different post. As for the Canes, they should have no problem with their possession numbers to tire out the Blue Jackets inexperienced players and get big goals.
Overs or Unders (1-0)
This line has shifted from over 6.5 to over 6, which signifies a shift in some bettors. Seattle has found their names plenty of times in this article over the last couple of months, they have some very balanced scoring and took care of business against the Maple Leafs a few nights ago 5-1. Despite their record, the Ottawa Senators do have a solid top 6 forward group that has just underperformed from an analytics standpoint this season.
When talking about the future of this team, that sort of thing will take care of itself with a tweak from the front office and with the looming changing of ownership in the coming months. Seattle’s goaltending has been a disastrous combination this season. Both Jones and Grubauer will throw a good game every once in awhile, but a team save percentage of .887 is a house of cards for any true contending team.
Dave’s DFS Picks of the day
I whiffed on Igor Shesterkin the other day, but the process was sound. I’ll own the miss, but I will add the caveat that it was one of the poorer games Carolina played, with far fewer shots on net than anticipated. But I did nail FLA1 with Matt Tkachuk putting up 50 DraftKings points. On to this week’s picks, with the disclaimer this is running very early and some lines/goalies are subject to change. This is also for the main slate, 7pm games or later.
Goalie: Logan Thompson ($8,100) – projected starter, not confirmed as of the writing of this post.
Thompson has been a bit of a revelation for Vegas, and is in the running for the Calder Trophy this season. The Kings are a top-ten team in CF/60 and SF/60, but are middle of the road in actually putting pucks in the net. That means shot attempts and saves for Thompson. LA’s implied live is currently under three goals, which gives Thompson a shot at the win, shutout, and 35+ save bonus, which could break the slate.
Top stack: TOR1-Michael Bunting/Auston Matthews/William Nylander ($20,900)
Toronto has the highest implied live at the moment (4.4), going up against a Red Wings team playing their backup goalie. All three play on PP1, and Detroit’s PK has been atrocious. It’s expensive to get them in, but cheaper than BOS1. Pay up for this trio, and find value elsewhere.
Disclaimer: Lines and odds from BetMGM as of 1:00PM on 1/7/23. Odds and lines subject to change. DFS options subject to change based on game time decisions, starting goalie news, or unexpected lineup changes. Dave and Tyler may change bets based on new odds and information that becomes available after article is published. If you choose to partake, please gamble responsibly and within your means! If you or anyone you know has a gambling addiction, please seek help. Gambling is only legal in the US for those 21 years of age and older.
Categorized: DFS/Sports Betting