NY Rangers Just Win Baby will eventually need to shift back to better process (with the wins, of course)

The Rangers are weird. During their rough October, the Rangers had great process, putting together a top-ten expected-goals share. But they couldn’t finish, and their lack of finish was frustrating, leading to a .500 record. Now, the Rangers are winning, they are shooting better, but the overall process has resulted in a bottom-ten expected-goals share. The NY Rangers Just Win Baby mentality was needed to get points, but at some point, they will need to have better on-ice process.

There is no one singular reason for the Rangers struggles early on or their pivot to their seven game win streak. Lineup decisions, poor shooting luck, goaltending, systems execution on the ice, player slumps, coaching adjustments, and in-game tactics all play a role in losing streaks and winning streaks. And to be frank, anyone who is stating “it’s just this one reason” is doing it wrong.

NY Rangers “Just Win Baby” approach gave them life

The NY Rangers Just Win Baby approach seems to be linked to playing a faster paced game. During their .500 stretch in November, they seemed to be playing slow. It didn’t mean they were slow from a skill standpoint, just the team was playing slow. Overthinking plays a big role in a team playing slow, especially one like the Rangers where speed shouldn’t be a huge issue.

Confidence plays a role in overthinking, and lack of confidence goes a long way to the game becoming too fast for a team, thus looking slower on the ice. The domino effect here is the Rangers, lacking team speed for whatever reason you prefer, weren’t generating rush chances or turnovers to trap the opposition.

In October, before that one bad period against Detroit that blew up the lines, it was clear the Rangers were just managing some PDO (SV% + SH%) issues. They were a fine product on the ice, just getting unlucky offensively while the goaltending had a slow start. Perception was the Rangers were bad, when in fact they were unlucky.

In November, specifically after that Detroit game, the wheels fell off and the Rangers were visibly slower on the ice. There’s no specific stat or metric that can track this, but it was clear on the ice. The forecheck was inconsistent, there were few rush chances, and any offense they did generate was inconsistent at best.

In their seven game run, we’ve seen an uptick in their speed and awareness, getting into neutral zone pass lanes, in on the forecheck, and most importantly, forcing turnovers in high danger areas for a quick transition to offense. Not all turnovers are created equal. from the offensive zone blue line to the tops of the defensive zone circles lead to more quick hit rush chances, and that’s where the turnovers, again visually, seem to be occurring in larger bunches.

Thus, more rush and high chances, and more goals for the Rangers. But it comes at a cost, with more high danger chances against, especially in their four game run against Vegas, Toronto, New Jersey, and Colorado. But they won, and at that point, wins mattered more than process.

The NY Rangers Just Win Baby approach appears to be more of a one-dimensional approach, with the team’s top offensive lines focusing a bit more on counter attacks and transition play, while sacrificing some sustained offensive pressure on the forecheck and cycle.

Shifting back to better process

There comes a need for the NY Rangers Just Win Baby approach to shift back to better process, specifically what we saw in October when the Rangers were generating offense in multiple methods. One of the reasons why the Rangers lost four straight to Tampa last year is they shut down those rush chances, and the Rangers couldn’t generate offense.

The best teams produce offense off the counter attack, off the cycle, and off the forecheck. Not all lines are going to be able to do so, which is where the roles come into play, but it is an overall team necessity. So when we talk the NY Rangers Just Win Baby approach needing a shift, it’s to a more complete look that teams can’t necessarily game plan against.

When the Rangers get there is hard to say, but how they get there is pretty easy to figure out. Assuming the goaltending and shooting stay at expected levels, then it’s about the lineup changes, player execution on the ice, and in-game coaching/tactical adjustments.

Assuming we take Gallant at his word, the lineup changes may get to “perfection” sooner rather than later.

Player execution, specifically playing with speed, seems to be returning to normal. It won’t be perfect, but playing within the system without overthinking is hopefully a thing of the past.

Process is a key word we use around here a lot. The process lately hasn’t been great, but they were winning. Now, the Rangers need to shift to better process while also winning games. Good process is winning games in multiple ways.