Thoughts on the NHL COVID situation and response

The three professional sports leagues in action right now are under siege by COVID. The NFL had to rework its schedule this week. The NHL is cancelling things left and right, with nine teams currently shutdown. I believe the NBA is just powering through things. It’s not ideal for any league, and we are seeing three different courses of action. None are perfect. But since this is a hockey site, I have thoughts on the NHL COVID situation and their response.

Update: Comments to this post are closed. You all have worn my patience way too thin with your comments the past two years. I’m sick of people turning this stuff into a political thing. It’s not. Over half a million people have died in this country alone. That is not, as a comment called it, “propergander.” If you can’t figure out what reality is, then you’re not welcomed here. 

1. Let’s get the disclaimer out of the way – this is not a place to talk about your political leanings and why XYZ politician has it right about the virus. The only people to listen to on a virus are the scientists. No one cares about where your drunk uncle thinks the virus came from, if drinking bleach or horse semen helps cure it, or if the vaccine gives you 5G and implants a tracking chip in your shoulder if you talk ill of the supreme leader. This is solely about how the NHL has reacted to the surge in positive tests. Also, unless specifically stated, I am not offering my personal opinion on this. I am simply trying to evaluate current situation, response, and what else can be done.

2. The good news is that the surge in positive tests has not resulted in many, if at all, cases of players being legitimately sick. That is because, per the NHL, all but Tyler Bertuzzi are vaccinated. It sounds like (not confirmed) most players got the one dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine, sometime between June and September. Based on unbiased news reports (citing PBS here), it is the least effective at preventing infection, but it is on par with Moderna and Pfizer with preventing serious illness. If we take a step back and look at this in conjunction with the high positive test rate and the minimal serious illness concerns, it checks out. I may be wrong, but it’s an educated guess.

3. The new wave of infections appear to be the Omicron variant, which has reports of being far more contagious. Again, if we assume #2 is true, then we know the vaccines are working. Vaccines aren’t a cure, they are designed to keep you as protected as possible, either by preventing infection or by reducing symptoms, thus reducing strain on the nation’s healthcare network. This is evidence they are working. What we don’t know is if any players have received their boosters.

4. That covers the review of what we can infer from the current NHL COVID situation. The NHL and NHLPA, in response, has postponed games, shutdown the league as of December 22 through the Christmas break, implemented new COVID protocols, and will likely forego NHL participation in the Olympics. The last item here is the one that will likely upset most players that could have gone, but it is more in response to the three week quarantine required once returning from Beijing.

5. The big news is the shutdown as of tomorrow. The NHL’s Christmas break begins on December 24, so this extends it by two days. Given the large number of games already postponed, this wasn’t really a big leap to take. I think the NHL only wound up postponing a handful of additional games with this announcement. I think it is the right move, as too many teams either had their operations shut down, or already had no games until next week (like the Rangers). This was a very logical move.

6. There are two reactions to this news. The first is “now the players go home and get to spread it to their families,” and “this is a half measure.” Regarding the first….come on. Really? These guys aren’t going to miss an opportunity go home to their families. Let’s be reasonable here. As for the half measure, I prefer to stay on the optimistic side of things. This is a shutdown, so it’s five days of no hockey activities. Not optimal (two weeks), but it’s something.

7. There are many calls to put a full pause for the optimal two weeks, given the current NHL COVID situation. I understand it. I am unsure if I agree with that, I don’t disagree, but I don’t fully agree. We spoke about this on Live From The Blue Seats, and the discussion point fell to if the country isn’t shutting down, how can the league sell a shutdown to the players and the fans? We are starting to see more state/province shutdowns in the US and Canada, so the NHL and NHLPA are likely taking their lead from governments.

8. What the current 7-10 day break in games does is, hopefully, get the numbers down internally among the teams and improving the NHL COVID situation. It isn’t a two week break, but it’s close to it. it gets broken down into a five day no hockey activities “quarantine,” followed by limited internal exposure internally to teams. It is then five and a half weeks until the break for the Olympics. The NHL COVID situation will become much clearer over that time, and the league and players are likely buying time to get to that three week break in the schedule. They will exhaust all other options before going with an additional shutdown.

9. Also remember: A shutdown is of all team operations. The league and players are aware that a two week shutdown likely means an additional 2-3 days of practice to get their legs back under them. Again, this is not my personal opinion, just a reading of the situation and what I believe the NHL COVID situation and response is aiming for. They want to get to the Olympic break. If the numbers are still high, this break is baked into the schedule, so they are trying their best to get there, while being flexible in their responses leading up to it.

10. I do, however, believe their response is better than the NFL, which has chosen to ignore asymptomatic players entirely. Asymptomatic, vaccinated or unvaccinated, still can spread the virus, and potentially exacerbate the strain on the health network. There’s a ripple effect. It is assumed the players and owners agreed to that, as the players want to play. This becomes a larger issue for indoor stadiums.

But if most states aren’t implementing a vaccine requirement to attend, then their thinking shifts to why us too? This is the crux of the issue: Until all local and federal governments come to an agreement on how to contain the spread (spoiler: they won’t agree to anything), it will be tough for any professional league to sell another shutdown. They keyword is “another.” Like it or not, the leagues are focusing on their image as well.