jacob trouba kandre miller

There has been a lot of talk about the Rangers start to the season. They are 4-1-1, but haven’t necessarily played like a 4-1-1 team. Igor Shesterkin has certainly stolen at least one game. The possession numbers are pretty rough, but there’s reason to believe they will get better. One thing that has changed this year is overall team defense, which is much improved. The pairs were what we expected to start the season, but are they the true optimal pairs? How have the Rangers defense pairs played, and are they playing to their best effectiveness?

So far, so good

 

One thing to takeaway from expected goals effectiveness thus far is that, while the Nemeth-Lundkvist pair has been a big yikes, the overall play from the Rangers defense pairs has been solid. Again, this is a way too early look at things.

Two things strike me: First is that Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren are a true top pairing, and could be one of the best pairings in the league. The second is that, and again small sample, the Nemeth-Lundkvist pair needs some work.

In speaking with Rob Luker, who provided the chart above. He had a couple of additional observations, aside from it’s too early. The first is that Nemeth-Lundkvist got caved in early, but have been closer to 50% xG lately, so we should be seeing big improvements on their season long numbers. The second is that the K’Andre Miller-Jacob Trouba pairing has been very hit or miss. They are either fantastic, or they are brutal.

Should they switch things up?

This is the $64,000 question. As much as I want to see Lindgren-Trouba, you don’t break up a potential top pairing in the league. So with that, the question shifts to finding better value in the bottom four defensemen.

If we are looking to unlock Trouba’s potential, then he may be best served with a defensive partner, which leads me to believe he and Nemeth might be a better partner for him. There is no statistical evidence to say that pairing would work. It’s based on Trouba’s performance with Josh Morrissey as his partner in Winnipeg, where he was far more effective, as opposed to more offensive minded partners.

That would leave Miller-Lundkvist as a pairing, which I can see causing concern for a few. Miller is still very raw, and we’ve seen flashes of what he can be, but he hasn’t put it all together yet. Meanwhile Lundkvist has five NHL games under his belt. He’s adjusting to the North American rink. While both have the potential to be solid NHLers, it may be too early to try them as a pair.

The counter argument here is quite simple. Both are good, and you never know until you try. However I do get wanting to keep them separate for now.

More time needed

Naturally, as is the theme with any statistical analysis at this way-too-early-stage, everyone needs more time. Injuries and natural progression will wind up sorting things out for the Rangers. Personally, I’d love to go wild and see something like the below (in no particular pairing order):

Miller-Fox
Nemeth-Trouba
Lindgren-Lundkvist

Unless everything gets thrown into a blender, it won’t happen. It gives a nice blend of offense and defense across the board, and it does break up some of the inconsistencies we’ve seen from the bottom two pairings. However again, more time is needed.

As for what to watch for – keep an eye on the Nemeth-Lundkvist pairing for stability. As Lundkvist gets adjusted to the North American game, their numbers should stabilize. Nemeth is a solid defenseman, and Lundkvist’s potential is through the roof.

I’d also like to see more consistency from Miller and Trouba, given they spent most of last season together as well. Hit or miss games are fine in the early going, but going boom or bust isn’t a recipe for long term success. Let’s see how all of this plays out through the holidays, when things should start to stabilize for the Rangers defense and their effecitveness.

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