A deeper dive into the Rangers start – it’s not all smoke and mirrors

Don’t look now, but the Rangers just swept their four game road trip. They are 4-1-1 to start the season, despite missing a pair of top six forwards, the off ice drama involving Vitali Kravtsov, and the needed adjustments to a new coach. Yet the early warning signs of smoke and mirrors are there, as the Rangers have had subpar possession numbers to start the season. As always, this requires a deeper dive.

Season long numbers are ‘meh’ at best

There is certainly a cause for concern, albeit some of the panic is a bit much, over the Rangers possession numbers. Here’s how they sit right now at even strength:

• xGF/60: 1.87 (29th)
• xGA/60: 2.18 (15th)
• xGF%: 46.22% (23rd)
• CF%: 48.22% (21st)
• SV%: 95.45% (4th)
• SH%: 6.54% (19th)

There are three things that stand out to me. The first is that as expected, Igor Shesterkin is a big reason why the Rangers are winning games. That SV% is not sustainable. However for the Rangers, a higher SV% than league average could be the norm, as Shesterkin is one of the league’s better goalies. This may drop to 93% at evens, which is where they sat with prime Henrik Lundqvist (2011-2014).

The second is the SH%. Given the talent on the Rangers –Mika Zibanejad, Artemiy Panarin, Alexis Lafreniere, etc– the Rangers are well below where they should be. Last year they shot 9.32% at even strength, but also lost Pavel Buchnevich. If we assume regression to the mean this year, then we should see the Rangers at around 8%, which is where they were for most of David Quinn’s tenure (2017-2020).

The third, and this is key, is that the offense isn’t clicking yet. You didn’t need numbers to tell you that, since you can see Panarin just isn’t right. Of course the xGF/60 numbers will be down if your $11 million elite winger isn’t firing on all cylinders yet. The lack of offense skews the numbers, and leads to thoughts that the Rangers are all smoke and mirrors.

Game logs

But like always, especially this early on in the season, we need to look at game logs. It’s been six games, and one amazing game or one awful game can really skew the numbers. Let’s focus primarily on xGF and xGA numbers, as those, to me, are more important than raw CF%. (Update by Dave: Dallas Stars, not Minnesota North Stars)

The Washington game was lost on special teams, and the Rangers didn’t look half bad at even strength. They also dominated Dallas, but that shooting luck was a factor. Right after that the Rangers lost Ryan Strome before the Montreal game, and Kaapo Kakko in the game. Since then, it’s been relatively bad. Although the Nashville game was closer on paper than you might think.

The thing to note is the xGF, which has been sub-2.00 for all but one game this season. The Rangers aren’t a defensive mess like teams past. In fact, they’ve been far better this year than all of the David Quinn years. The concern is the offense, both in generating chances and in finishing. Finishing will come, however there is certainly a concern for generating chances.

What does this mean?

This means be patient. The Rangers are not all smoke and mirrors. At least not yet. The hardest part of learning a new coach and system is the defensive aspect of the game. The Rangers have been miserable defensively for some time. This is as close to a 180 as you can get on the defensive side of things.

As for the offense, let’s see how they look when they get fully healthy. We knew depth was going to be a concern heading into the season, especially at RW. There was also going to be an adjustment period in finding the proper lines, which they may have just lucked into.

Patience is key. We’ve been preaching that if there are process issues after Thanksgiving, then we should take a step back and see what the issues are. And that doesn’t mean season-long numbers at Thanksgiving, that means examining trends and looking at game logs leading up to and after the holiday(s). Trends matter.