For a couple months, I’ve been piggybacking off Elliotte Friedman and our own Brandon Cohen on this weekly thought post. While I’d usually do these ad-hoc, I liked the idea of consistency and a common theme. This week, let’s talk about Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ 8-year contract in Edmonton, and how it might impact the Rangers.
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1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins signed an 8-year contract to stay in Edmonton that pays him $5.125 million a season. The contract itself is incredibly team friendly, with the majority of it in actual salary and relatively front loaded. It does come with a no-move clause. For RNH, this is stability and a guaranteed paycheck until he is 36 years old. It also –probably– keeps him in Edmonton, which I’d assume means a lot to him for personal reasons. For the Oilers, they get their 60-point 2C for a ridiculous bargain. It’s truly a win-win, and it might be a sign of things to come, given the flat cap. Given where the Rangers sit with Mika Zibanejad and Ryan Strome, this might have contract impacts for the next few years.
2. The Rangers have a conundrum to face with both Zibanejad and Strome, as they both are hitting unrestricted free agency after next season. The Blueshirts have already tried to trade Strome once, but that was before he had another great year with the metrics to prove it isn’t just on Artemiy Panarin’s coattails. Zibanejad was impacted severely by COVID before turning it on, and he’s actually older than Strome by a few months. Both will be 29 for the start of the 2022 season, which means a long term deal takes them into their mid-30s. Without a flat cap, both are due significant raises. Now, though, the Nuge contract sets a market that neither player wanted to see.
They are faced with a choice. Do they accept a long-term deal with stability and much less pay? Or do they take a risk on a short term, higher dollar contract and hope the new TV deal ends the flat cap sooner than expected?
3. Speaking from an organizational perspective, I’d much rather have them on shorter term, higher dollar contracts. The Rangers don’t have a cap crunch for a good 3-4 years, so the dollars are honestly inconsequential. The issue has always been term at high dollars. For Zibanejad and Strome, it may be more beneficial for the Rangers to go this route to avoid any potential age related decline. It’s going to happen for both players, and by limiting term, they limit their exposure to the decline. It’s just smart. The question here, and there are a lot given the RNH contract, is what does a shorter term, larger dollar contract look like? Pre-RNH deal, it may have been closer to $10 million. Now? Does that 8x$9m contract for Zibanejad turn into 3x$9 million?
4. Beyond the centers, I wonder if this has an impact on the Pavel Buchnevich contract. It’s not the best comparison because of position and age, but the mindset still stands. Would you pay a 26 year old Buchnevich $4.5 million over 8 years? Seems like a no-brainer, no? Less risk about those pesky mid-30s years. Would he even take that? There are so many variables that come up because of the RNH contract that cause a ripple effect on the Rangers’ plans. It’s not just the Rangers either, as this contract will have impacts throughout the league.
5. Where this doesn’t apply is with Adam Fox, recent Norris Trophy winner. As much as we want to hope, he’s not going to take a discount, and he shouldn’t. He’s likely heading to a Thomas Chabot contract, plus more. Chabot has a $8 million per year deal for 8 years, and based off the past year, Fox will command more. Honestly, I back up a dump truck of money at Fox’s doorstep. This is when you lock up Fox, when he can sign his extension, for 8 years and at least $8.5 million. He’s worth it. I wish the RNH contract applied here, but it does not. Fox will be worth every penny, much like Artemiy Panarin.
6. One last bit on the RNH contract and its impact on the Rangers, and that is how players and teams are approaching the flat cap era. It’s real, and there is no avoiding it. My prediction is that we will see a fair share of late-20’s UFAs like RNH go for the stability over the short-term dollars. They leave money on the table, but only if the NHL and the US rebounds with disposable income spending on hockey. If it were me, I’d take less guaranteed over the unknown. It’s why many take salaried jobs over commission jobs. Stability and planning matter for everyone. Players are human after all. This is something I can see Ryan Strome doing.
That said, for someone like Zibanejad, who has had three years of crazy production, it may make more sense for him to take a risk on a shorter term deal for a bigger cap hit and hope for a second pay day in 3 years if/when the cap stabilizes and rises. It’s a huge risk, but Zibanejad, unlike Strome, has the perceived ability around the league.
Don’t discount how league opinion and perception matters. We all have our opinions and feelings. But how the league feels is what matters.
7. Not necessarily related to the RNH contract, but kudos to (most) of the voters for getting the awards right. There was not one single complaint about the award winners. Fox won with relative ease. Connor McDavid was a unanimous Hart winner. It’s the best the voters have done in a long, long time. Perhaps this bodes well for the future voting. Less archaic voting on reputation, and more on who actually had the best season. In years past Victor Hedman would have won because he’s been there the longest. This line of thinking cost Henrik Lundqvist at least a few Vezina Trophies.
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