NHL proposing changes to draft lottery

After last year’s ‘fiasco’ where the Rangers got lucky in a flawed draft system, the NHL is looking to change things up with the draft lottery. I jest a bit, since there have been teams calling for changes to the draft lottery for a while. However the timing seems suspect, since it comes barely six months after the Rangers won two lotteries in a row. The proposed changes are clearly designed to avoid that:

I do jest about this being about the Rangers. It’s not. Edmonton had three #1 picks in a row from 2010-2012. They had another #3 pick in 2014. The Penguins alternated #1 and #2 picks for four straight years from 2003-2006. The Sabres got two #2s in a row, then three years later got the #1. One team built a dynasty, while the two were very poorly run.

As for the Rangers, they got lucky in 2019, jumping from 6th to 2nd to grab Kaapo Kakko. The 2020 draft was pure luck, where they were just one of eight teams eligible for the top pick, which was a 12.5% chance of hitting. And they hit.

Impact On The Rangers

These changes wouldn’t go into effect until the 2022 draft at the earliest. So if this impacts the Rangers immediately, then something went very wrong in the rebuild. Next season is pegged as their first as true contenders. Given the defensive improvements this season, that’s not a pipe dream.

It took the Rangers over 50 years to get a #1 overall pick. They are not a team that tanks. This isn’t something that will likely impact the Rangers in any significant way. There’s always the chance the Rangers finish just outside the playoffs sometime soon. Which means the Rangers won’t be able to jump from #14 to #1, they’d just go to a top-five pick.

It is worth noting that prior lottery wins don’t count towards the two win max. So the Rangers, if they are still out of the playoffs for the 2022 NHL Draft, would still be eligible to win the lottery. But again, they can only move up ten picks max.

Potential Holes

I get what the NHL is trying to do. They don’t want teams tanking for a few years in a row and then building dynasties through top picks. The NHL hates when all its stars are on one team. Given they can’t even promote their players properly, this isn’t surprising. The NHL loves parity, or at least the illusion of parity.

This still doesn’t prevent what Buffalo did in the Connor McDavid draft, where they blatantly tanked all season. Luck wasn’t with them but Jack Eichel isn’t a bad consolation prize. If anything, teams can look down the line to pick a year to tank. If you don’t think that happens already, Buffalo is again a good example here. This promotes targeted tanking.

This likely impacts the teams in the 3-10 range in the lottery more than the bottom two or those just outside the playoffs. These teams usually aren’t tanking, they are just bad. Most of them are poorly run, which is a separate discussion, but these teams might actually be punished for trying and failing.

One other thing. The NHL is still trying to figure out how to gain more of a national audience in the US. It’s still a niche sport. This further complicates something that shouldn’t be complicated. The changes to the NHL Draft lottery is going to make it tough to follow, thus possibly tough to market and promote.