Irresponsible Rumormongering

Vince Dunn is back on the market, and the Rangers should be in on him

Vince Dunn is back on the trade market, according to Elliotte Friedman. I’ve written on Vince Dunn and the Rangers before, and it’s no secret I am very high on him. At the time of the original post, the Rangers had a very big hole on LD. That hole has been partially filled by K’Andre Miller. However the Rangers are still trotting Jack Johnson out there regularly. Brendan Smith has been good, but he’s not the best answer either.

Enter Dunn, who is being incredibly misused in St. Louis. He’s got great underlying numbers both offensively and defensively, so there’s questions about what St. Louis is doing.

Dunn Fits Perfectly

A few months ago, the Rangers needed Dunn to give them another viable body on the left side. With Miller showing he belongs, Dunn would be an upgrade and really solidify the blue line into a strength.

Dunn is just 24 years old, and would fit in with the Rangers direction. The Blueshirts are still rebuilding, but are now at the point of turning the corner. Dunn wouldn’t need to be the 1RD on the team either, easing his transition and hopefully putting him in a position to succeed.

Not Entirely Cost Prohibitive

The asking price for Dunn is rumored to be a first round pick. When we’ve seen these asking prices in the past, the trade is usually for less. There is certainly a fit if the Blues fancy themselves contenders this year. There’s not much help in their pipeline either.

If we assume –which is a big assumption, so take it with a grain of salt– that the Blues would accept a roster player and a lesser pick, then there’s room to work here. Given they’d be subtracting from the blue line, it stands to reason that the Rangers would send a defenseman back.

For the Rangers, the only player that fits this mold is Tony DeAngelo. This wouldn’t be a one-for-one trade, so both sides would need to adjust. The big thing is that St. Louis can’t take on DeAngelo’s cap hit ($4.8 million) without adding more to Dunn’s $1.875 million. The Rangers have their own cap concerns as well, which complicates matters.

Potential Fallout

If the Rangers trade for Dunn *and* DeAngelo is *not* included in the deal, then the only real fallout is who to protect in the expansion draft. Jacob Trouba is automatically protected (NMC). The Rangers would protect Vince Dunn if they trade for him. So it would be a decision between DeAngelo and Lindgren. Given how the season has started, I think that answer is pretty easy.

Something else to consider is impact down the road. The Rangers do have Matthew Robertson and Braden Schneider in the pipeline. Robertson is already signed to his ELC. The club expects him to compete for a role next year or the year after. Having too many good defensemen is rarely a problem though.

For the Rangers, trading for Dunn would address some concerns in the short and medium term. It also gives them insurance as it is highly unlikely all of their prospects hit. Whether or not there’s something St. Louis wants remains to be seen.

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  • There is a serious question which is never considered here. Are underlying numbers important or are they just crap? We have lots of problems with the Rangers winning with bad process or losing with good process. So??

    Consider

    “Enter Dunn, who is being incredibly misused in St. Louis. He’s got great underlying numbers both offensively and defensively, so there’s questions about what St. Louis is doing.”

    Here we have evidence that St. Louis is not so concerned with underlying numbers. Well, not too long ago, the Blues won the Cup.

    A big question, which I have never seen anyone attempt to answer is “How successful are the teams that worship underlying stats and how successful are those that ignore them?” This is at least some evidence that one recently successful team is not so interested them.

    Because of sample size error, possession stats are far more “accurate” than goal-based stats. But is what they accurately measure worth measuring? It is easy to make good intuitive arguments both ways. But the best test IMO is to what extent organizational reliance on them leads to success.

      • … but at what cost to get him, plus add the fact that he would then need to be protected in the coming draft (unless we’re trading DeAngelo and assuming part of his salary).

  • So let me see if I have this correct. We are having big issues with the center position, our first 2 O-lines seem inept and we are not winning faceoffs. – So we should go out and get Vince Dunn. Hmmmmm

  • They need to find a deal for a decent middle six center and a middle pairing LD. They need better depth. Is there a team where a deal like this is possible and makes sense?

  • Given the way this season is playing out, this is a no brainer. we absolutely need another competent defenseman, and his contract is more than acceptable. It’s up to Gorton to put a package together that the Blues will accept.

  • I’m not sure on Dunn, however what in the world is JJ doing on this team!
    Worse D man around, no grit, and will eventually drastically lower Tony D’s trade value. Makes me wonder if DQ and JM are the right guys for the job.

    • So the Blues are trading us their 1C making $7.5M and a good LD making about 1.9M for a total cap hit of about $6M — that puts us well over the cap. Regardless, Blues can’t afford to part with their 1C, they want to win NOW.

      • Actually Kakko’s effective cap hit is $3.5M, so the Rangers would actually be shedding $8.3M, not $6M – at least in terms of this year.

        Agree that this deal won’t happen though.

        • You’re talking about the $2.65M in bonuses, we’re still over the cap with such a trade … not by much. but still.

          • ROR is not the 1C he used to be, and the Blues would be lucky to find someone to take that salary off their hands. Tony D fits right into their system as a 2RD and Kakko is on their 2nd line. Give them a good pick and maybe Hajek and make a deal. This team needs to be shaken up! Only so many moves before the axe falls of DQ.

          • He’s still a 60-70 point 29 year old center with a career 55.5% faceoff % … so please spare us, he’s exactly what he’s always been if you eliminate ONE 77 point year. Oh yeah, and he’s equally good, if not better, come playoff time … and wears the C.

            If STL were rebuilding, then yes a Kakko, ADA + deal could make sense for them, but they’re here to win now.

  • We need a center a lot more than an LD. If a deal would be revolving around Dunn and ADA there are center options in St. Louis that can help balance out the dollars. Remember Dunn is on a 1 year deal ADA is on a 2 year deal.

    Dunn + Barbashev is a cap hit of $3,350Mill so more needs to be done(not Dunn) there. Barbashev would probably be exposed at he expansion draft. We would probably have to include a mid to late round pick.

    Dunn + Sundqvist gets the dollars where about where they need to be. $4,625mill. I like Sundqvist but 2 years left(after this year) at $2,750 is a bit steep for a bottom 6 guy. His contract will expire before we have to Pay Lafreniere and K Miller. Sundqvist would probably be exposed at the expansion draft.

    Dunn + Bozak 50% retained+maybe a 3rd or 4th? The dollars work. Bozak draws 55%, he’s not young and his scoring is in decline but his contract ends this year. He’s a stop gap. And may have value at the trade deadline.

    I will also add, aside from Robertson, Zack Jones has been making a lot of noise at UMASS. With Miller and Lindgren and now Dunn where does he and Robertson fit in as well?

    • Robert Thomas is the C I would target, but he’s on an ELC so the numbers don’t work — besides, there’s a question on how high his upside really is, but he’s definitely a player I like.

      Bottom line, there’s no real good fit with the Blues — for what we really need.

        • Besides, would you even contemplate a trade of Chytil straight up for Thomas? I wouldn’t … we’re in panic mode right now. We’ve lost 4 straight games, we’ve lost Chytil, Strome isn’t coming close to how he played last season (and he wasn’t quite good enough even then, long term), and Mika is in a funk. A good management team doesn’t trade out of panic — and they always have one eye fixed on the near to medium future with any trade involving valuable assets.

  • We have a glut of d-men right now in the system. This is not our primary need either. We NEED a center pronto. Without Chytil, and Zib and Strome struggling like this, they could be out of the playoffs quickly before they find a rhythm. Dunn may be good, but I don’t feel like getting him really moves the needle.

    We need to deal from strength to shore up the middle here. And our strength is d-men. There’s the old saying that you can never have too many. But it’s also true that you can have so many, and can’t develop them all correctly. Adding Dunn, even if for another d-man, doesn’t help that. If it’s a larger deal for Dunn and a center that fills our needs, then great. Hell, do a 3-team deal if you can. If not, then pass.

    Tony D is a good d-man. It wasn’t just last season. He’s just playing with zero confidence right now. I’m no fan of moving him on the cheap just because of his social media activity, and I know that’s a big reason why fans in the NY area have soured on him so quickly…

  • Don’t panic now, plenty of time to panic later.

    RE: Buffalo game two.

    Will be interesting to see if the come out with a little more structure next time. Collect the puck, come out as a group.

    P.S.
    Watching Mora get drilled, 4-0 after 40. Mora’s D sucks, but so does Lindbom. 2 goals on 13 shots in the 1st. 3rd goal was a tipped shot from the point. 4th goal gets beat from the Ovie spot with a shooter on his off hand. The problem is Lindbom was already square to the shooter, got beat through the arm pit.

    The complete opposite of a fast twitch goalie.

    PPS: Tärnström out of the lineup, AIK also missing coaches.

  • Until (not unless) Zib, Kreider, Strome, Panarin & Igor start playing better, giving up assets (and potentially blocking a prospect) for Dunn is not that much of an upgrade over just playing Smith over JJ.

  • I’d get rid of tony deangelo i don’t like him as a defensemen he takes stupid penalty’s and is a problem, i think to me that the head coach don’t really care for him so if i were the rangers I’d trade for dunn now, there both disgruntled with there team’s so deangelo must go, john Davidson pull the trigger now get Dunn now don’t wait because if you do someone else won’t to get him.

  • Right now don’t want to over react or give up major talent only 1 team wins cup and we are youngest team in league. Use overflow in talent for an elite guy. I don’t think you can give up a first as if we are underperforming will be another great player. Schneider, ludquist going to be very good. Add them to d-corps and we are really good. If this guy stabilizes us great. But are at least 6 deep in strong prospect package with strome//de Angelo maybe both give up second tier prospect and go big at deadline have 1.5 years to refine team for playoffs.

  • I see going after this guy with 2nd tier prospect and 2nd round guy. Elite guy Strome/DeAngelo and good prospect; guy has to be a center; loosing cytill a really big deal but may make us take a shot big like eichel.

  • Good point that he could block Robertson but QAngelo is blocking Lundkvist who remains unsigned. He isn’t going to sign if there isn’t an NHL path which means someone’s gotta go.

    Trouba and his contract aren’t going anywhere, we don’t want Fox going anywhere that means QAngelo has to go, sure a package for a center would be nice but using him to balance the dpairs isn’t so bad

  • Would love to see this I’m just wondering what it’s gonna take draft picks wouldn’t hurt if we have to give up one of our D Tony is the logical choice though I’d hate to give him up Something else we have to recognize is that since the season started we look like we’re skating in mud we’re getting knocked around we can’t complete a pass it’s like we’re not ready to start the season oh and our goalies are giving up soft goal after soft goal but I would like to see us get Dunn

  • The Rangers have plenty of young promising dmen in the system, no need to chase after Dunn. Besides the Blues are asking for a first round pick. The way the Rangers are playing that could be a high draft pick.

  • Blues fan dropping by with perspective from our side. I think your assumption that the Blues would want a player back is flawed by itself. Dunn is expendable because the team feels like Niko Mikkola is ready to step in and fill his role as 3rd pairing LD. The team also has Carl Gunnarsson (normally an LD too, but with Robert Bortuzzo out they have no third RD). And they just brought up Hobey Baker Award winner Scott Perunovich to the taxi squad. These guys are all on the left side so maybe if you’ve got a cheap third pairing RD to send back that’s fine (Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk fill the top two RD slots), but otherwise I think Doug Armstrong would just be looking for picks. The cap is what’s going to be the hard part though, CapFriendly says the Blues have absolutely zero space left.

    I’ve also seen some comments asking about Robert Thomas, Armstrong isn’t trading him. He and Jordan Kyrou were the two guys he made off-limits to Buffalo in the deal (read: mugging) for Ryan O’Reilly. Thomas is developing into an NHL caliber center right now on the third line but in the next couple years – definitely after ROR’s deal is up after 2022-23 – they’re hoping he can be a top 6 guy. Really the ideal scenario for the team was him being a top six forward right now, but Brayden Schenn is producing very highly right now and ROR is the captain so he gets bumped down to 3C.

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