The NY Rangers will eventually hit the ice in early January for a truncated camp before the season begins on January 14. To say there are mixed expectations for the Rangers is an understatement. Some think they are great. Others think they are terrible. Some think they are about hockey-.500. We will get a good idea of what the Rangers will be within the first three weeks of the season. So here are five bold (or not so bold) predictions for the NY Rangers 2021 season.
1. The Rangers will finish ahead of the Islanders in the standings
That’s right, the Rangers will finish ahead of the Islanders (and thus the Devils and Sabres) in the Eastern Division standings. This might be the boldest of the predictions for the NY Rangers 2021 season. This plays into the truncated season and scoring hot streaks that will likely have an impact on the standings. The Rangers are a high powered offense, capable of having multiple runs of 4-5 goals per game. Couple that with elite potential in net, and high PDO might move the Rangers up the standings.
Meanwhile the Islanders are more about steady defense and timely scoring. They are very well coached, and that approach works over the course of a full season. But in a truncated season, their scoring may dry up for stretches that will have a more exaggerated impact this season. They are a good team, but if the scoring dries up, they may underperform this year.
This does not mean the Rangers are guaranteed to be a playoff team (still four solid teams ahead of them). I think they are in the hockey-.500 range. But finishing ahead of the Islanders is still progress in this cluster of a season.
2. Filip Chytil will break out as the 2C
Perhaps I’m beating a dead horse here, but I’m all-in on Filip Chytil as the 2C this year. He may not start the season there, but he will certainly finish the season there. Chytil has had flashes of greatness, which is nice to see. However his overall progress from two years ago to last season was a huge step forward.
Chytil isn’t going to be Mika Zibanejad. But he could be a better prime-Derek Stepan. Remember Stepan had five straight 50-point seasons. If Zibanejad is the locked-in 1C, then 50 points out of your 2C is pretty great production. Given his current cost and projected next contract, that’s solid bang-for-your-buck too. Expect Chytil to click with Artemi Panarin (who doesn’t?).
3. Kaapo Kakko will do a complete-180
Kaapo Kakko had one of the worst statistical seasons on record last season. He simply should not have been in the NHL. He showed signs of a turnaround in August after a good amount of rest. With more rest and a year under his belt, he should begin showing why he was the #2 overall pick in 2019.
Kakko will also benefit from the combination of being with Panarin on the second line, and being separated from Brett Howden. Kakko certainly had his fundamental issues, but they were certainly compounded by being with Howden, who is objectively not good. If he’s getting consistent time with Panarin and Strome/Chytil, then we will see his play turn around.
4. The penalty kill will actually have structure
The Rangers’ penalty kill has been a mess for a while. Goaltending usually covered up issues, but as that went, the PK% dropped drastically. This will be Jacques Martin’s quickest influence on the Rangers. Less is more sometimes, and Martin has the defensive and PK pedigree coming with him in that regard.
The penalty kill will also benefit greatly without Marc Staal getting big minutes. If we assume Ryan Lindgren gets those minutes, then that’s a big win already. After that, it’s a bit of a mess though. If we assume Tarmo Reunanen makes the club and doesn’t have major adjustment issues, then making him the primary 2LD on the PK will improve things dramatically as well. However if it’s Jack Johnson, we might not see that PK% increase that much.
What’s more important is good process. A Martin-run PK will have structure and good process. The results will come as the personnel grows and improves. Get the structure in first, then fine tune for results.
5. Ryan Strome will not finish the season as a Ranger
This is a prediction predicated on prospect growth. If we assume #2 above comes to fruition, then Strome becomes the 3C. If #1 above is true, then the offense is a powerhouse and Strome may have inflated numbers, thus inflated value at the deadline.
What this also assumes is that Morgan Barron or Patrick Khodorenko will develop enough to take the 3C role. Or Howden improves significantly and resembles an NHL center. If there are players on ELCs in place that can take a 3C role, then Strome becomes a luxury. If there are injuries on teams with Stanley Cup aspirations, he might fetch a good amount at the deadline. He’s also on an affordable contract, something that matters as teams struggle to recoup profits.
This is the least bold of the predictions for the 2021 NY Rangers season. But it’s a prediction nonetheless.
What are your predictions for the upcoming season?
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