The NHL and NHLPA are in crunch time. Just days after it was reported neither side had spoken, there has been progress. Both sides are targeting roughly a January 15, 2021 start date for the NHL season. That would mean a 55 or so game schedule. We’ve seen that once both sides agree, they move quickly, so let’s hope that is the case. Perhaps they both recognized the issues with delaying this further.
Agreement Timing
Assuming a mid-January start date –and the assuming no preseason games– then the league would likely need to get going relatively quickly. There would need to be some sort of agreement before the holidays. Let’s be real, neither side is going to want to negotiate through Christmas. Maybe New Year’s, but not Christmas.
If we assume an agreement is in place by the holidays, then we can also probably assume a two or a three week camp. That would bring final cuts to mid-January, right in time for the start date. It’s not ideal, but if this is the target, we should be getting a lot of news relatively quickly.
Season Pacing
Assuming that January 15 start date, and also assuming 12 games per month on average, then 48 games gets us to May 15. It’s a fair assumption that the league can get in 6-7 games in that extra 15-16 days. It’s going to be a very condensed schedule. Games might be every other day if the league goes with a normal schedule.
Of course the NHL is toying with temporary bubbles, with a bunch of games in two weeks and then a week off. If that is the chosen route, then we are looking at four games a week for two weeks, then a week off. Again, it’s not ideal, but it’s hockey.
Unknowns and Wild Cards
The obvious COVID situation is the biggest wild card. The NFL has been a bit of a train wreck this season. The NBA just had 40 or so players test positive. Neither league is using a bubble of any kind.
Beyond that, there are owners looking into playing home games outdoors. That way they can bring in some fans to games and get some ticket and concession revenue. Kudos for thinking outside the box. It’s not a realistic scenario for all teams though.
The other big wild card is the Olympics. NBC will prioritize the Olympics starting July 23. The playoffs will need to end by then, or else risk not being on NBC at all. The 2020 playoffs took about seven weeks, so that means the 2021 playoffs would need to begin on or around June 1. Again, it’s tight.
All this said, if the NHL wants the 2021 start date to be in mid January, then there needs to be an agreement made soon.
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