Offseason

A look at THN’s NY Rangers point predictions

Content is a little light, but a big thanks to Tom Urtz who posted this image of The Hockey News’ NY Rangers point predictions for the upcoming season. So let’s take a look at this, shall we?

This is based off an 82-game season, which we know isn’t happening this year. But still let’s dive in.

Too High (Expect 10% less points)

I may get crucified for this, but I think Artemi Panarin’s 82-game pace is too high. Panarin was on pace for 112 points last seaosn, so the 107 point projection here is predicting a repeat performance. I don’t think that will happen. This mostly has to do with Ryan Strome, whom I don’t think will come anywhere near his pace from last season (we wil get to that). Filip Chytil may be able to take that role, but that’s a question mark. As is Kaapo Kakko on this wing.

Tony DeAngelo’s 58 points struck me as high as well. And before you guys crucify me, it’s a safe bet that someone will not repeat a career season. DeAngelo’s goal total will likely come down, as he shot a whopping 10% last season, 60% higher than his career average. So for DeAngelo to match his point total, the assist numbers need to come up. He’s very talented and if he continues to get PP1 time, he might still get close to those numbers. But I also think Adam Fox gets a timeshare on PP1. If DeAngelo’s ice time on PP1 comes down, expect his point totals to come down as well.

Brett Howden likely won’t get 3C ice time, or even 3RW ice time. So that 39 points seems a bit too high. I also don’t think Alexis Lafreniere will get to 61 points because of ice time. He will be the 3LW coming into the season, so unless he gets significant powerplay time, I think he will struggle to get there.

Yegor Rykov and Vitali Kravtsov won’t his their projections either. But that’s because they will be in the KHL for the full season. I have to take the gimme’s when I can get them.

Too Low (Expect 10% more)

Adam Fox’s 35 point projection is way too low. He’s the best defenseman on the team, no hyperbole. It’s all about ice time with Fox. If he gets the timeshare on PP1, then he will definitely eclipse that point total. After all, he put up 42 points last season. This is another gimme.

Filip Chytil will go well beyond that 26 point prediction. He put up 23 points in 60 games last year, which is already above that pace. When you assume more ice time and eventually taking the 2C role from Strome, then he should get to 40 points. If he gets a hot shooting hand, he may get to 50 points. It all depends on ice time (sensing a theme yet?).

Chris Kreider’s 52 points seems like an accurate prediction, but I’m going to be bold. I think Kreider will finish with a 65 point pace this season. In years past, when one of Mika Zibanejad or Pavel Buchnevich got hurt, the KZB line got someone far inferior to replace them. Nowadays, they get someone equally skilled and shouldn’t miss a beat. I have to be bold somewhere, and this is my prediction.

Kaapo Kakko’s 42 point projection will be low if he gets consistent time with Panarin. If Julien Gauthier gets a lot of time with Lafreniere, he will probably double his 16 point projection. I also think Jacob Trouba, assuming a consistent and truly viable partner for him at even strength, gets above that 30 point marker. But powerplay time will play a role there.

Just Right (Within 10%)

Buchnevich (60) and Zibanejad (75) seem just right to me. This follows the same reasoning as Kreider above – I just think there is more talent at even strength to account for injuries. There’s too much talent for that entire line to miss the 60 point pace.

I also think they nailed Strome’s projections. He’s going to start the season with Panarin, with Chytil likely taking the 2C role at some point. That should be enough to get Strome to 50 points, which will be below his total from last year. But Strome is a lot like Michael Grabner – the production is well above the expectations and career norms. At some point, the bottom drops out.

Predicting points is a risky business. Little things, a puck bounce here or there, can impact points so much. THN’s NY Rangers point predictions are certainly worth the look. But it will be interesting to see how the Rangers use their players, which will be the biggest impact of all to points.

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  • It is nice to have a crystal ball.
    Predictions based on past performance in a fluid situation are a bit fictional. I hope we all move to a time when we can make predictions on a known-game count and a roster that is chosen.

    We all hope our top 2 lines continue to thrive and our 3rd line becomes a scoring threat. We hope that the defense is stronger and that any offense coming from our defensemen increases.

    We also hope that Shesty is as good as we all think he is.

  • Reading Howden as 3C with 39 points, and Chytil as 4C with 26 points, had me shaking my head no….til it occurred to me that Quinn might be reading the same thing and shaking his head yes.

  • Man, you’ve been saying Strome will eventually suck for almost 2 years exactly now.

    It’s not like I’m a huge Strome fan, but you’ve just been digging into the guy pretty much the whole time he’s been here. It was a really good trade for the NYR, and he fits really well in the lineup for what we need him to do. I don’t get why you’re so hung up on him.

    Sorry to say, but it’s also not a “prediction” of yours if he slows down 3 years after you “called it.”

    That’s called clickbait…

    • Title of post: A look at THN’s NY Rangers Point Predictions

      Content of post: Reviewed the THN NY Rangers point predictions.

      This is as honest a post title as it can get, buddy.

      As an aside, your rationale for this being “clickbait” is pretty wild. It’s clickbait because I…think Strome will come in at 50 points, thus agreeing with THN?

      I’m really confused here. Please enlighten me.

  • a career season is only a career season until you go out and beat it again, then that becomes your career season.

  • I know that this is all fantasy hockey stuff, which I admittedly know little about, but I’d like to know the line combinations and defensive pairings before speculating on point production. We are really only sort of certain about the KZB line. Yes Kakko probably plays with Panarin and Strome, but it isn’t yet guaranteed. I just think projections might be a bit premature.

  • Mika is low, I would rate him for at least 85-90 points (full season of course) … that allows me to predict Buch at 60-65, same for Kreider. Mika is clearly the best player on the KZB line, he will also PK at times and get more PP time (with Panarin), hence the 20-30 point discrepancy from his linemates.

    Chytil will clearly exceed 26 points, I’m counting on 40-50 even if he’s relegated all year to the 3rd line. That should give Lafreniere ample opportunity to produce a bit more thanks to more PP time — say 50+.

    • “Chytil will clearly exceed 26 points, I’m counting on 40-50 even if he’s relegated all year to the 3rd line”

      What?? Laffy will probably make Chytil point totals go up if they’re a thing early on… I expect Laffy to be moved up on the top line/top 6 due to many possibilities/reasons…

      I highly doubt Chytil will be able to put up 45-50 points in a full season.. Now you think he’s going to put that up in a shorten season..? Come on, be realistic about this scenario…

      He isn’t the type to rack up a bunch of assist….I think gunning for 3c of the year is possible in the near future and in a full season. Him being a double digit goal scorer should be the the thing for him to add to his resume…

      • These total numbers are based on a full season (did you even read what Dave wrote???), 40 (not 45) to 50 points is achievable.

          • That is a reflection on the writer’s part…. Along with all the calling you out…

            But yes you caught me..

          • It’s a regular habit with you, getting caught that is. Besides, if you have such an issue with the writer that you can’t be bothered to actually read the whole post, stop reading and save yourself the embarrassment and the aggravation.

  • It’s fun to predict point totals during this seemingly endless offseason. I hope they all build on their totals from a year ago. However, this upcoming season’s point totals could be affected by the realignment the league is rumored to be thinking about. The Rangers could be in a brutal “East” division with a lot of tough defensive minded opponents. Point totals could be down across the board if you’re playing the Bruins, Isles, Flyers, Canes & Caps a bunch of times.

    • “Point totals could be down across the board if you’re playing the Bruins, Isles, Flyers, Canes & Caps a bunch of times”

      Add in Buffalo Sabres to that list… All those team’s will be matchup’s in hell with their top 6 1-2 punches down the middle, shutdown 3c’s, superior top 4’s and overall much better depth….

      The fans across the league are going to go bananas if NYR gain another top 3 draft pick.

      • I didn’t throw the Sabres into that group, NotsoAvery, but yeah they should be improved this year. I don’t know if they play as tight a defensive system as the Isles or Flyers, but overall if the Rangers are just going to play against their new division it could make for a lot of 3-2, 2-1 games. Not my favorite style of game to watch during the regular season 40 times, but we shall see. A lot of tough teams out there.

        JoeS-lets hope the kids come through! LGR!

    • What I really love about the realignment, especially this year with all the kids, is it is do or die. This is the perfect way to see what these guys can do, and see if the next step, we’ve all been waiting for, is being taken. I’m sure you have all heard the term “Baptism by fire”, this is what I’m talking about here. This season will separate the kids from the men, teach them how to play in the NHL, and benefit them in their careers going forward. Sure, this will probably be a rollercoaster ride, but it will make the team so much better to compete for the Cup in 21-22, which is when I believe this teams time to compete for the Cup will begin in earnest. I just can’t find any reasons to be against this realignment.

  • Not for nothing but Bread had a pretty quiet series against the Canes, so, yeah, it will be very tough to repeat last season’s production.

    My God, if Howden is on the 3rd line and Chytil on the 4th, then you can have a line up of Gretzky’s and Messier’s, and we still will not win.

    Agree on Fox. He is a stud (and our best D man by far) and gets close to 50 pts in a full 82 game season.

  • when i saw this yet another thn clueless production: my rxn was:

    kreider – just right
    zib just right
    buch a bit high
    howden – very agressive.
    laf – doable but quite agressive.
    panarin – ok
    chytil – way too low – like not even a bit of production increase? (this was my signal that they put as much work into this as the new adidas jerseys)

  • First year prediction.

    LeFranchise will be an unstoppable force:

    Vision and awareness on the ice…Check
    Tenacity and unrelenting nature….Check
    Hockey IQ, goal scoring ablility……Check

    My prediction…but based on a full season………21 GOALS 80 ASSISTS..

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