Does the Sam Reinhart contract impact Ryan Strome’s arbitration

Earlier today, the Buffalo Sabres and Sam Reinhart avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one year, $5.2 million contract. While not a perfect comparison, it’s one that may foreshadow what contract Ryan Strome gets from the Rangers if they avoid arbitration. At the very least, it’s somewhat of a comparable contract.

A long term deal for Strome doesn’t appear to be on the table, but there is certainly a good case for a short term contract. The Reinhart deal is one that could be used by both sides as something to build off, since the production was similar last season.

The Similarities

This is easy – both are centers who can play wing, both are RFAs, and both put up 50+ points last season. Reinhart did it playing primarily with Jack Eichel, while Strome with Artemi Panarin. Neither really drive play, but both can be good passengers on a line.

That’s actually a good amount of similarities for arbitration and/or negotiations. Evolving-Hockey had Reinhart at $5.26 million if he got a one year deal. They only had him at an 8% chance of getting that one year deal, but he did and the dollar amount was right.

As for Strome on a one year deal, EH has him at $4.75 million, but only a 3% chance of getting that one year deal. Given how the offseason has progressed, it seems more and more likely that Strome will only get a year with the Rangers. That is, if he’s still with the Rangers when the season starts.

The Differences

This is where the Rangers will chime in to get the contract lower. Strome put up more points than Reinhart this year (59 vs. 50), but Reinhart has put up at least 50 points each of the last three seasons. He’s also a year younger than Strome.

On the other hand, this is Strome’s first year over 50 points since his 2014-2015 season. That matters in arbitration. It’s also one of the many reasons why the Rangers don’t want to commit to him long term. The track record isn’t there.

Ryan Strome’s camp is likely to use Sam Reinhart’s contract in arbitration and contract negotiations. While there are certainly similarities, it’s not a perfect comparison. The Rangers already concerned about anything more than $4.5 million for Strome, so this makes you wonder what their plans are. It still seems like a trade is their first preference. Are they willing to go above that $4.5 million marker for a year?

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  • I’ve said it a million times: If it’s one year for Strome, then it will be for $5Mish, a hundred thousand either way.

    • If it’s $5 mil. the Rangers don’t walk away… they run away. If this Reinhart contract has ramifications on the one Strome may get in arb then they ramp up the the trade negotiations. Don’t expect a second rounder though.

      • I don’t think so. My belief has always been that the Rangers would clear cap space in anticipation of having Strome as their 2C, for a year at $5M.

        That’s been their fall back stance in searching for a 2C outside of the current roster.

  • Reinhardt has better goal totals, pretty consistently throughout last 5 years. That should knock it down a few hundred thousand. So prob 4.7-4.9.

  • He’s not worth it the kids they drafted will do fine anybody can get those pts and more playing with Panarin

    • I agree with you, but the flaw in this statement is that the RANGERS do not believe that. Right now.

  • Sign Strome for 1 yr at under 5 mil.and at the deadline you can move him and see how good the kids can play.

    • If Strome were a marketable asset, he would have been traded by now.
      Personally, I think teams are reluctant to pay what Gorton is asking for Strome due to his track record or lack-thereof. Gorton May have to sign Strome for the 1 or 2 year deal to showcase him for the suitors to see he’s the real deal. Not many Panarin types for him to play with outside of NY. Will he put up 50+ on another team? Hasn’t really shown much of that before last season.

  • Strome is 2 years and 4 months older!! Not 1 year. He’s played 91 more career games and has less goals and points. They’re not comparable. There’s no way Strome is worth more than 4 mil. If he’s smart, his agent won’t ask for more than that 4.5 walk away price. Flat cap and it’s getting late for him to become a free agent.

    • I hope you’re right. The Rangers would have more leverage in contract talks if they can’t trade him. I would want at least a 2nd if not a mid level prospect too.

  • Does it impact the arbitration? Yes. Arbitrator is looking at contracts signed by comparable RFAs. Not sure how much more comparable it gets in substance than a short term contract signed by another RFA center in the same off-season.

  • I believe that there is a factor that many might be missing: I think that Strome probably wants to keep playing with Panarin for at least a year or two. With the likelihood that his production would be similar to what it was last season, he can probably parlay that into a nice contract in the future. So, I would not be surprised to see Strome signing a one or two year contract at somewhere around $4.5 million.

    • Yes! I completely agree, and think this has been really overlooked as well. If you’re Strome, and you know that no teams out there are really looking to give you that 5yr deal, there’s really no better place to play for him. I mean, where else can he go and have an opportunity like this? He gets to play with Panarin and doesn’t have the full pressure of being the 1C either (which he can’t be anyway). Hell, if he slips a little or Chytil really takes that next step, he still gets to play with young studs like Kakko and Lafreniere.

      He gets a good raise now. And he is set up here in a very good spot to get an even better raise if he plays well. Strome obviously knows all of this, and so does JG. I think the deal will be slightly better than we think because of this.

      They’re not far off as it is… no way this goes to arbitration.

  • Sam is a few years younger then Strome and potentially has a little more upside.

    With Stromer what you see is what you got. A border line top 6 hockey player who is mediocre in his own zone. If he goes to arbitration my guess is a one year deal around 4.75 million. If the Rangers are not knocking at the door for a playoff spot, come trade deadline time. They should move him for a draft pick.

  • Rangers will sign Stromer to a 2 yr contract worth 9.5/9.6 mil. Maybe they back load second year to free up cap space for this year (ie-4.5 and 5)? That gives Chytil 2 years to mature as a player.

    -Rangers love Strome

    -Not so easy to find a player who gels with star player like Strome did.

    -Not every player is Mark Messier or needs to be. Sure he needs to improve onFOs and stop taking penalties, but I think coaches will work on that with him. Strome’s line was a force and he was a plus 21 this past year. He will be even better this year.

    -Keeping Strome as 2C allows Rangers to keep Laf on 3rd line to start season with Chytil (which allows the Rangers to have potentially 3 dangerous lines), while keeping pressure off Laf and gives Chytil a talented winger to play with.

  • The NYR cannot afford to NOT sign Strome. He helps make Panarin as good as he is. Don’t you take a $5M insurance policy out so your $11M player continues to shine?

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