Following last night’s NHL Draft Lottery, the NY Rangers are one of eight teams still with a chance at the first overall pick. An “unassigned” team won the first overall pick, meaning one of the play-in losers will get a shot at that pick.
In terms of simple math, the eight losers have a 12.5% chance of winning the pick. But since when is math ever simple? Dom Luszczyszyn put together a quick graphic with the odds for each team, which accounts for likelihood of winning their play-in round.
First overall pick odds (lmao) pic.twitter.com/ucUsKW8z4Z
— dom luszczyszyn (@domluszczyszyn) June 27, 2020
The Rangers’ Own First Rounder
The NY Rangers have about a 7% chance of landing that first overall pick. The only way for the Rangers to get the first overall pick is by losing the play-in round to Carolina. They would then need to win the lottery to get the first overall pick.
Just to reiterate – the only way for the Rangers to get the first overall pick is by losing to Carolina. The Rangers would then need to win the second NHL Draft lottery.
The Brady Skjei Trade
Funny enough, the Carolina Hurricanes have the best odds at winning the first overall pick. The Canes get to choose between their pick and Toronto’s as part of the Patrick Marleau salary dump.
The Canes naturally they will select whichever one is highest in the draft, and the Rangers will get the other pick. This means that no matter what, beating Carolina leaves no options for the first overall pick.
The Rest of the Picks
What if none of this happens? Well the rest of the picks –numbers 8-15– are determined by reverse points percentage order. This is per normal NHL Draft rules. There are way too many scenarios for me to calculate. The Rangers do have the potential to pick as high as #9 and as low as #14, depending on how the rest of the play-in round plays out.
jk it's 9th-14th. Goodnight.
— Adam Herman (@AdamZHerman) June 27, 2020
Of course that’s only for their own pick. They’d still get the lower pick of Toronto/Carolina.
Season Gets Cancelled
A real possibility. In this case, the bottom four non-playoff teams from each conference would get an equal 12.5% chance of winning the first pick. The rest of the draft order would be sequenced out by reverse points percentage order.
In this scenario, the Rangers would get either the first overall pick or the 13th pick. If I did my math correctly, only the Islanders and the Vancouver Canucks are ahead of the Rangers in points percentage.
This is such a convoluted process. The summary below is for the best possible pick only. Remember that the Rangers have two picks. The below is for best possible selection.
- The NY Rangers can get the first overall pick if they lose to Carolina and win the second NHL Draft Lottery.
- If the Rangers lose to Carolina but don’t win the lottery, they can draft as high as #9 and as low as #14.
- If the Rangers beat Carolina and Toronto loses to Columbus, they will pick in the low double digits.
- The Rangers cannot use the Carolina pick to get the first overall pick.
- If the Rangers beat Carolina and Toronto beats Columbus, they will have two picks after #16, depending on the results of the playoffs.
- If the season gets cancelled, the Rangers have an equal 12.5% shot at winning the top pick. If they lose, they get I believe the 13th pick.
- Remember that the Rangers have two picks. No matter what, one of the picks will be after #16.
- Adam Herman put together a nice table of possible scenarios.
So what are you rooting for? A playoff run or the top pick? Remember you can pick both. It’s not one or the other.
Me? My heart wants a playoff run. My heart says any of the three goalies can get hot and carry this team through the Eastern Conference. My brain says they aren’t ready and need another top pick. I don’t know which one to choose.