An updated look at the NY Rangers’ playoff chances

The New York Rangers’ playoff chances took a hit this weekend with back-to-back regulation losses to the Philadelphia Flyers. It wasn’t so much the losses, it was the fact they were in regulation, which impacted their ability to get to 98 points. The Blueshirts aren’t done, but when we last wrote on this topic, their playoff chances were at 40.9%. Now they’ve dropped to 29.8%, with a projected finish of 92.1 points.

The Money Puck model does more than just calculate based on points remaining. They factor in strength of schedule, in which the Blueshirts face 14 teams in the playoff hunt. They only have 17 games remaining, which means 82% of their remaining games are against teams either headed to the playoffs or in the hunt. Their schedule isn’t helping.

Another factor is the lineup they dress nightly, which took a major hit with Chris Kreider’s fractured foot. The offense looked out of sync without Pavel Buchnevich for two days, and now they’ve lost Kreider for longer. Inability to generate consistent offense is going to impact them negatively.

The goal is still 98 points. The Rangers are at 74 with those 17 games (34 points) remaining. That’s 24 of 34 points needed, or 70.5% of the remaining points. That’s about 1.4 points per game, up from 1.3 points per game just four days ago.

To put this in a wins/losses framework, and continuing with the trend of the Rangers mostly finishing games in regulation, a 12-5-0 record gets them to exactly 98 points. That can also be 10-5-2. But that’s about it – anything more than five regulation losses and the Rangers are on the outside looking in.

That’s it. Five regulation losses. If 98 points is the magic number, then five regulation losses is the tragic number. It’s doable, but it’s a tall order given the schedule.