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Suffice it to say, there has been a little contention on social media when we state that the Rangers have been significantly better recently. The message has been the Rangers have been better defensively, on the forecheck, and in controlling offense. They aren’t great, but they are around league average since December and over the last 25 games.

Yet with better process we haven’t necessarily seen results. The Rangers are a .500 team in their last 25 games, so the better process hasn’t translated to more wins. While better process –executing the system better, getting more scoring chances for and limiting chances against– is a predictor of future success, there’s more to it than just the process and the numbers. Skill matters – specifically shooting and goaltending. Average process teams with great skill can and will win, the Rangers under Alain Vigneault are a good example here. Meanwhile great process teams with average goaltending/skill will struggle, as the Carolina Hurricanes until last season showed us.

This is the crux of the problem lately. The Rangers have not scored a goal at even strength in three of the past four games and have lost three in a row against non-Detroit teams. The goaltending has been incredibly average as well, save for a few highlights by all three goalies.

https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/1225056551725158400

Sean Tierney is our go-to here for easy-to-read charts that showcase what we are discussing. In this thread, the top chart represents how the Rangers have played in their past 25 games. In the first 25 games, the Rangers were off the charts bad. They overlapped the word “bad” – they gave up a ton of chances against and never got any on their own. They relied solely on goaltending and a skilled top-six to stay afloat. From that location to where they are today –a ton more chances for and a better job limiting chances against– is a huge improvement in overall process. Aggressiveness on the forecheck is a primary reason here.

But it’s really the second chart from Sean that illustrates the talking point today. The Blueshirts, all season, have been in the upper-right portion of the chart, getting great goaltending and shooting. That’s how they were built. This season was no different, as they began with tremendous goaltending to complement their skilled forward group. Over the last 25 games, the goaltending has been sub-par across the board and the shooting came down almost a full percentage point. This is uncharacteristic of the Rangers, which is why the wins aren’t coming with the improved process.

As the team gets more experienced, the depth builds out, and the kids develop, the skill and goaltending will stay at a consistent level. If the improved process isn’t a blip, then it will finally align with this consistent skill. You need both to be good. The Rangers are getting close.

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