Irresponsible Rumormongering

On the trade deadline and selling high

It may seem off to trade a player at his peak, but it is sometimes the right move

As we inch closer to the trade deadline, the conversations are dominated by trade talk. Who to trade. Why to trade him. What returns can be. This and a whole slew of other topics jump to everyone’s minds. One concept that is oft overlooked in this scenarios is selling high, especially with players that are not a part of the organization’s future.

The concept here is pretty simple. The Rangers have a plan –whether or not you agree with that plan is irrelevant here– and they will execute on their plan. Think of the Blueshirts as a company. They have short and long term goals and have identified the pieces needed in the short term to get them to that long term. If there are assets that don’t fit into that long-term goal, you sell them off, even if they are producing for you currently. The Rangers did this with a few players. Michael Grabner comes to mind. As does Derek Stepan.

Alex Georgiev is the perfect example here. Georgiev is probably going to be a solid starter in this league. However the Rangers have already identified Igor Shesterkin as the future goaltender in this organization. This is a Mike Richter/John Vanbiesbrouck situation. You can only keep one, and the Rangers are going to keep Shesterkin, like Richter. So they will trade Georgiev the way they traded Beezer.

The good news is that Georgiev’s value is sky high, and given some of his advanced metrics, this may be the highest it will ever be. In the short term it may not seem like it makes sense, keeping the 38 year old franchise netminder who may actually be having a better season, over the 23 year old, but Henrik Lundqvist isn’t getting you to talk about Kasperi Kapanen in a trade rumor. Selling high on Georgiev gets you an asset you can use, whereas trying to trade a 38 year old gets you a mid-round pick at best. All this without actually impacting your future in net. For a club that struggles with asset management, this is a no-brainer.

That brings us to players like Chris Kreider, Ryan Strome, Tony DeAngelo, Jesper Fast, and to a lesser extent Brendan Lemieux. All are on some level of expiring contract, and all are playing pretty well. If the Rangers have identified that none of the four are part of their long-term solution, then the trade value will never be higher, especially for players like Strome and DeAngelo who have value beyond the trade deadline as potential future pieces. Again, this is about asset management and ensuring you use these assets to get to that future goal.

Most of the focus is going to be on Kreider in the short term, as it appears the Rangers want him around, but contract demands can always throw a wrench into the process. Fast as well, especially with that Zach Kassian contract in Edmonton. After that the focus shifts to the RFAs.

Alex Georgiev is going to be a casualty of the great goalie pipeline the Rangers currently have, and selling now will get the Rangers the best possible price. The same argument could be made for Strome and DeAngelo, and it’s part of the reason why I mention them a lot in potential trades. It’s about building the best Rangers team possible and getting the most out of the assets. Every player mentioned here has value to the Rangers. Evaluating how much future value they have is thankfully not my job, and a process that gets repeated every year.

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  • I’m tired of hearing trade Strome,Deangelo so what we can get a pick and it turn to be useless we have two players Deangelo, performing so well he may get more points than any Ranger did last year,sanme with strome, stall ,buch,smith,hank all need to go, Keane takes Stalls spot Krieder stays for 5 years 6 mill ?,

  • The Rangers should make EVERY PLAYER who doesn’t have a NMC available for trade discussions. Keep it quiet from the fans and press and go about getting the best deal you can regardless of who that player is today The real issue is what will that player be next year and beyond for the next 3-5 seasons. This is were the FO fails. Their ability to project who and what that player will be is often wrong. Cost of that player going forward along with their ability to play at a HIGH & Consistent level of performance is important as well. The Rangers have to target those type of players and EXPAND any trade to acquire those assets. It’s the Neil Smith approach. If you look at his trades he made as GM he often expanded those deal to include higher skill players /consistent level of performance he wanted now for young assets. It did work for him more often than not. He did win the cup so it works. ( early in his tenure as GM. Later on those types of deals did cost him his job and Dolan thought Slats was the answer to lead the Rangers )

    • Neil Smith led the team to the Cup. No question that he deserves kudos for that. He also traded away Sergei Zubov, who was just voted into the HOF. ALL general managers make some decisions that they end up regretting, especially when it comes to judging a player’s potential performance. Also, he didn’t have to deal with a salary cap. Today, young assets like the ones he gave away to sign established players are CRITICAL to a team’s success. It’s no longer possible to just wave a wad of cash around to get the players you want, which Smith could do. So far, I think the current GM is doing a decent job. Our prospect pipeline has been vastly improved, some good young players (Trouba, Lemeiux, ADA, Chytil, Fox, Lindgren, as examples) have been added, and we’ve signed the best free agent pickup the team has ever had in Panarin. Very little about any of these deals was ever leaked before they were included, either.

  • ADA is not getting traded, take him off the list.

    I think that CK (after much thought and deliberation) and Strome get traded. CK just not worthy of a 7 x 7 contract, and Strome’s #s away from Panarin are not spectacular, so both sell high candidates.

    I originally felt that Fast would go as well, but now feel that Fast will stay for vet leadership. I’m hearing more and more that Buch will probably stay.

    So, Georgiev goes, if the right deal is there, but the Rangers will not “force it.” It is possible that he stays if the right deal is not there. The Rangers want a lot for him (2 young NHL players), and rightfully so.

    I think CK and Strome go as well, for young NHL players also. Picks don’t cut it this time as there is no one NHL ready in the pipeline as a forward, other than Krav. They need forwards. The D is coming and already covered.

  • The Rangers will be unable to re sign Kreider due to salary cap restraints , and need to move Georgiev sooner thank later with the expansion draft looming.
    The Rangers are not in position to offer Kreider anywhere near what he will command in free agency. Even if they were able to lock up Kreider for 5 years at 6 mil per (not likely), it would cause other RFA’s to be moved, and would block other young players from important development. Not to mention that players of Kreider ilk (speed and power) tend to decline as they age.

    As far as Georgiev goes, the longer the Rangers hold on to him, the less value he will have due to the expansion draft. Not to mention that the Rangers pipeline is filled with promising goalies.

    If the Rangers are serious about rebuilding , which I think they are, they will maximize the returns for Kreider, Georgiev, Andersson, and Strome (on the fence about him). And lock up ADA long term.
    This would accelerate the rebuild and give the Rangers a real shot of doing some damage in the following few years.

    • Your post is actually backward. Georgie wouldn’t affect The expansion draft as shesty is exempt and Lundy will be a FA. So they’d only need to protect 1 goalie. Kreider’s size and speed won’t decline where he won’t be an impact. Every player of every ilk declines. But his size and speed coupled with his workout regimen and physical attributes actually point to him aging well. Even if he does slow down… he’s 6’3 220. He’s a big boy and net front presence. That doesn’t age. Keep Kreider. Trade ADA and Georgie to Toronto for Nylander

      • The Rangers are loaded with goalies and they can’t keep everyone. By many accounts Tyler Wall May be a better prospect than Shesterkin

        Why in the world would the Rangers trade their best offensive defenseman . They finally have what they have been looking for, for years. He is still young , controllable, and will still get much better on the defensive side of things with time

        Pretty sure the Rangers are fed up with signing offensive defenseman who don’t pan out.
        Ie Yandle , Shatty, and the list goes on….

        • If Wall was a better prospect than Shesterken he would already be signed to a contract. Instead Wall is set to become a UFA August 15, 2020 and will probably sign with a team with an easier path to the NHL. I hope I’m wrong and he signs with the Rangers.

    • Tony

      After last nights pounding by the Oilers, I believe the Leafs will be ready to anti up a little more than originally offered for Georgie!!!!!!

      I would want to keep ADA, for many reasons, and move CK, as much as I like the guy, due to his cost, and probably term demands????? I can see Buch being moved for the proper return, and Andersson, but I suspect they keep Strome as an insurance policy, but you never know with any negotiations!!!!!!!!!

  • Yes, a 38-year-old may only get you a mid-round pick, but trading him also gets you $8 million in cap space to hold onto someone of actual value to the team

    • The Rangers have their first round pick in the 2020 draft
      They have zero 2nd round picks due to the Fox trade
      Two 3rd round picks which include the Zuc trade
      Their own 4th round pick

      Considering this is one of the deepest drafts in a while, the Rangers should take every advantage of this and move assets that won’t be a real part of the rebuild.
      Get assets now and hope the Rangers will be deadline buyers in the next few years!

    • Unfortunately for your plan, that 38-year-old has a No Move Clause in his contract. He’s not going anywhere.

      • Just because the Rangers can’t trade Lundqvist without him waiving his NMC, doesn’t mean they have to play him. I say keep Shesterken and Georgiev and let them basically split the games the rest of this season and next season and work Lundqvist in when you can. Neither Georgiev or Shesterken has played more than half a seasons worth of games before anyway. Why trade a good – maybe great 23 year old goalie in favour of keeping a 38 year old goalie who’s probably not in the teams plans or the team in his plans past next season. Teams now days need two good goaltenders because they want their hot goaltender come playoff time to be fresh and not be burned out for the long playoff grind. By the time the Rangers are ready to contend again they will have to get another goalie anyway if Georgiev is traded.

  • Almost anyone should be available for the right return – which means nhl ready players or prospects. For cap reasons, If it comes down to a choice between keeping ADA or Kreider, I think we must choose ADA. No one knows how long our supposedly amazing defensive prospects will take to make an impact, and ADA has shown over the past two seasons that he can provide offense that few others can. He should not be traded for cap reasons.

  • Looking at the Rangers’ situation now, I doubt that they’re interested in draft picks (unless they’re high first rounders, of course). They’re looking at players who (1) will be an improvement to the team, no matter what position they play, and (2) they want players who are young enough to sign a reasonable contract, and who can (3) stay with the team for more than a year or two. If another team is willing to offer players that fulfill those conditions, and/or (4) take some salary off the Rangers’ books, then the deal makes sense. Otherwise, pass.

  • Is it possible that Hank realizes he’s in his own “Eli Manning” situation and knows he’s about to be replaced, permanently by one of the kids? If they trade Georgiev and keep Igor, then he knows he becomes the backup next year. Is that how he wants to end his career here? I don’t think, at this stage, he wants to uproot his family just to chase a dream of a Cup with a contender; who, if they are a contender, will probably only use him as a backup anyway. And if they use him as a starter, then are they REALLY a contender or just taking a chance on him to get them there? Is that what he wants to do: Go chase another chance?
    IMO, the best answer to this 3-headed goalie situation, is for Hank to bow out at the end of this year, and face the writing on the wall. I know he’d be leaving a LOT of money on the table, but I doubt that’s a problem for him. I get it….he’s still a great goalie and can still make a difference….but Mgmt. seems to be sticking to its course on this rebuild. Frankly, Hank is just not part of it.
    Keeping both Igor and Georgiev, to me, would seem to be the best scenario all around—except for Lundqvist. But it is what it is. Not every great player wins a championship.
    Now, what are the odds of Hank retiring? Probably low….but, IMO, that’s the best outcome for the Rangers. Kinda’ a cold outlook for Hank, but again…it is what it is.

    • Personally, I can easily see him sliding into the back up goalie slot next year, mentoring his replacement for that year, then leaving the Rangers gracefully at the end of next season. It’s the kind of thing he’d do, and the kind of treatment he deserves.

      • So you want him to just sit there, waste the last few minutes of his career holding Igor’s hand, and then walk off into the sunset? Why would he want to put himself through that? Especially if Shesterkin is successful. And you have NO problem with the team paying him $8mil just to be a mentor? Can you imagine the type of questions he’d have to deal with, now being the #2? To me, that’s demeaning and NOT the type of treatment he deserves.

    • I’ve decided to stop going insane every time someone posts a “Hank is selfish and should walk away” post. I thought it would be good for my sanity, but somehow I prefer outbursts of expletives…

      • If its my post you’re referring to,I said nothing about Hank being selfish. That’s just you getting your fanboy panties in a bunch.

      • It gets exhausting doesn’t it?

        And it is shocking how unappreciated Hank is. I could understand if he could not play anymore, but he can.

        And we all get that wanting to keep the 2 much younger goalies is the way to go, but there are others behind Shesty that may be just as good. Ranger fans have to understand that Georgie is not the de facto starter, Shesty is, going forward.

  • Life long Ranger fan here. So want to have some fun here… Excited about trade deadline.
    Keep Strome (DQ favorite) Keep ADA ( just scratching the surface of his abilities). Trade CK 🙁 player back TBD. Trade Jesper Fast & Georgi for Kapanen. Trade Anderson + for Puljujarvi. Trade Skjei in one of these scenarios. Use these players in some sort of scenarios….
    Trading Kreider Skjei Anderson Fast Georgi frees up 13-14mln
    We add 5.5 mln roughly with Kapanen and Puljujärvi and Kravtsov Leaves 8-9mln ish for extensions Lemieux Strome ADA.

    Money doesn’t exactly work and still have to add player salary from a potential Kreider trade…than again if we can punt some salary by moving out Staal, Smith contracts would help immensely….going to be interesting…

    Lines:
    Player TBD from CK trade-Z- Kapanen
    Bread man -Strome- Buchy
    Kravtsov -Phil -Kakko
    Lemuix-Howden – Puljujarvi

    D would be same with exception of Skjei moving out..Hayak back in and maybe bump up to Rykor,Keane etc…

  • I get it Dave, but the ‘selling high’ concept ignores my own mantra if you will, which is ‘keep highly skilled players!’

    I believe that whether the Rangers keep Kreider or not will be solely driven by the extent of his contract demands. If the Rangers find that they can make him happy, I think he stays. This is not a sell high situation but it is a situation where the Rangers really need the player’s skills and physical presence.

    Tony DeAngelo is just breaking out this year. He has demonstrated that he and Zibanejad have the best hands on the club after Panarin, and, at least offensively, Tony has great vision on the ice. If Pete is GM I’d figure out a way to keep him and lock him up. Guys with skills do not grow on trees!

    Ryan Strome might be a sell high, but, who do the Rangers have to replace him? I’d like to see Chytil as the 2ns line center eventually, with Strome sliding into the third line. It would also be a better fit for Strome because he is not that good defensively. If they don’t have to over pay for him, keep him because he is only 26 and will be useful for a long time or at least until the Rangers get more centers on board.

    Jesper Fast is a nice player and is a perfect guy for a 3rd or 4th line and PK duties. He is also a character guy. But, because his hands are nearly stone he is not irreplaceable. .I’d keep him if I could but he is not a must sign.

    Brendan Lemieux is another guy I’d like to keep because he has some skill, some toughness and brings energy and enthusiasm and is young. I’d keep him over Fast actually because of his age, but, Brendan’s skill level does not make him a must sign.

    Buchnevich has some great skills but will he ever display them fully with the Rangers? I don’t want to trade him necessarily because the Rangers are not flush with wingers, but he is someone who could be dealt in the right deal.

    Finally, I like Georgiev very much. However, I doubt that Hank is going to retire before his contract runs out. If that is the case, then the Rangers have too many goalies and they need to deal him. He might bring a nice return in a package.

  • Trade Georgie – Trade Buch too, he’s becoming Squat – Dish Skjei now, he’s not getting better ever – Loose as much salary too.

    Sign CK, Sign ADA, LETS GO!

    🙂

  • The way to build a winner is to keep your best players and move those that your pipeline can replace . The Rangers lack in big , strong forwards . So you find a way to keep CK20 – move Buchnevich . He can use a change of scenery and become something somewhere else – he is pressing . Kravtsov can replace him down the road – this will take time because he is not close to NHL ready . When it gets physical in the playoffs you will want these type of players . ADA is what we have desired for years . Its simple , you keep him . We do have a large amount of D prospects – move Skjei to create space. I hate to move Georgiev but he will bring back a gritty forward that we need . We have 3 goalies in the system that have a shot at NHL now beside these guys. Get creative for next year , after that we get cap relief and we can be positioned for years !

  • (Full disclosure: never played hockey, jus reading and sometimes watching it)

    From cap prospective, with Hank (NMC and he does not want to go anywhere) and Shattenkirk buyout money tied up next year: 8+6=14M, you may forget this and next season: simply not enough money to have a competitive roster with the high enough probability to compete. Instead, ask yourself a question: who do you want to see on the roster come 2021-22 season?

  • I like Georgie and he is proven in the NHL. And I think the sample size for Igor is too small to make a determination on whether he is better than Georgie at the NHL level or not- he likely will be. No one really discusses it but hypothetically what is Igor the top goalie prospect in the worlds trade value? 1st rounder to a non playoff team in need of a goalie? They could lock up Georgie now long term at a reasonable price (7/30?) and trade Igor too…. and hank is playing well enough that he would be an admirable backup. After this deal is over what is he worth at 39 (2/4?). doubt it happens but I think it settles the goalie dilemma.

  • Keep Deangelo, one of the top D in the league at only 24, still has lots of time to improve defensively, I think we’d regret trading him like Zubov. Wouldn’t mind trying to convince king to waive his clause to go to a contender at this years trade deadline, eat half his salary for next year and we can keep both young goalies until further notice, it’s not like they’re getting paid right now. Half of Lundqvists salary and theirs combined is still cheaper than his current cap hit. Kreider is a 4-5 million player, but Hayes got 7 from Philly, so I’m sure someone will offer that to him in the league, just not us.

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