With one of Kaapo Kakko or Jack Hughes secured with the second overall pick, it’s easy to forget that the Rangers also have the 20th pick in the draft. Based on Corey Pronman’s draft rankings (sub req’d), the draft appears to be in a few tiers of talent:
- Hughes/Kakko
- The next five or so
- Picks 8-12
- Picks 13-16
- Picks 17-23
- Picks 24-31
The Blueshirts will get someone in the top tier, that we know. We also know that barring something drastic, the Ranges will likely not get into that second tier through the 7th pick. It’s also unlikely the Rangers get into the 8-12 range without a roster sacrifice. But to get into the 13-16 range, that’s something doable.
Looking at @HockeyStatMiner’s comparable trades to move up in the first round, there’s a precedent for this:
Some previous 'trade up' comparables here:
#16 traded for #19 & #42 ———— (6/22/07)
#16 traded for #20 & #53 ———— (6/24/06)
#18 traded for #24 & #70 ———— (6/22/07)
#18 traded for #20 & #58 ———— (6/30/13)— HockeyStatMiner (@HockeyStatMiner) June 2, 2019
Given the tiers from Pronman’s list, it looks like the Rangers would want to move into the #16 spot at worst in order to grab someone from the next tier. This assumes that someone doesn’t go off the board earlier of course.
So the question here is, can the Rangers move up to #16 (Colorado) in exchange for #20 and #49? It seems like that’s fair value. That could be the difference in getting someone like Cam York or Ryan Suzuki, as opposed to Thomas Harley or Raphael Lavoie. It’s not a significant upgrade, but an upgrade nonetheless.
On the flip side of things, if there is no one enticing on the board at #20, the Rangers could theoretically trade down as well. Again leveraging HSM, here are the comparable trades at that slot:
Some comparables for trading down the #20 pick:
#20 traded for #23 & #84 ———— (6/26/09)
#20 traded for #29 & [#41] ———- (7/30/05)
#21 traded for #30 & #36 ———— (6/22/07)
#21 traded for #26 & #37 ———— (6/26/09)
#21 traded for #23 & #54 ———— (6/20/08)— HockeyStatMiner (@HockeyStatMiner) June 2, 2019
I like HSM’s proposal here, targeting Carolina’s 28th pick and getting back NYR’s #37 pick in exchange for the #20. The Ducks could be a target here at #29 and #39 for #20, although that is lesser value than the Carolina proposal. The Kings and #22/#33 could be an option here too.
Now all this is based on who is still on the board and who is on Gordie Clark’s board. They moved up last year when K’Andre Miller was still within striking distance. I happen to enjoy the hypotheticals that HSM puts up regularly. There are a bunch of options at #20 with the way the draft is lining up.
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