Pavel and the great, excellent, very good, not bad preseason

pavel buchnevich
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Pavel Buchnevich is about to hit a Rangers crossroads. Hyped as the next elite talent, Buchnevich struggled to find consistency under Alain Vigneault. Now in his third professional season, Buchnevich is going to be counted upon to find consistency with top line and possibly top powerplay minutes under new coach David Quinn.

The first step in Buchnevich’s transition to top line player for the Rangers is and was a solid preseason. Buchnevich has answered the call so far, putting up a line of 3-4-7 in four preseason games. That’s good for third in the league in preseason points. I know it’s the preseason, but that is a solid step forward.

We don’t really have any xGF or WAR metrics available for the preseason, so our analysis will have to be based on points and eye test. Even if we did have those numbers available, four games is nowhere near enough of a sample to judge his play. So let’s just wing it.

The points are obviously a great sign, but again it is preseason. So those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. However it’s been his confidence and overall play in the offensive zone that has impressed. He’s been able to downright dominate some shifts, drawing attention from multiple defenders and opening the ice for his linemates.

It’s this kind of dominating play the Rangers are going to need and expect from Buchnevich. If he ever plans on sniffing the same status of the guys he’s frequently compared to (Tarasenko, Kuznetsov), then this season is going to be huge for him.

It’s ok to be a little optimistic about Buchnevich this year. But let’s also remember expectations. Last season, only nine players broke 90 points, with three breaking 100 points. Top line forwards are around 60-70 points, which is hopefully what we see from Buchnevich. The lower end of that spectrum is definitely doable for Buchnevich. Anything else is just gravy.

"Pavel and the great, excellent, very good, not bad preseason", 5 out of 5 based on 19 ratings.

17 thoughts on “Pavel and the great, excellent, very good, not bad preseason

  • Sep 27, 2018 at 12:11 pm

    Would it be fair to ask that the first line get 200 points next year?

    • Sep 27, 2018 at 12:28 pm

      I would put the Over/Under at 170 and even that is arguably optimistic

    • Sep 27, 2018 at 12:33 pm

      That’s an average of 66 points each, which seems a little high for an entire line, but could be accomplished, especially if one of the three has a real break out season.

      • Sep 27, 2018 at 12:51 pm

        IMO, our first line needs to get those 200 points for us to be competitive, as we cannot expect more than 140 out of the 2nd line, and below 120 for lines 3 and 4.

        In other words, our first line needs to carry the major scoring load next year.

        • Sep 27, 2018 at 1:42 pm

          Tall order to ask for when you want to consider that Kreider and Zib still haven’t touch 54 points yet. You’re acting like those guys should be able to do that on the drop of a dime. Let me just remind you that Kreider had 53 points in 2015 during the presidents trophy year next to Nash, Stepan, prime Brass, prime Zucc an MSL.

          Guy’s like that have no choice but to break out if they wish to remain with the team in the next era of NYR hockey. Zib and him should have had a couple 55-60 points by now by their deployments and hype. That’s why Skjei has the only secure contract that would bring him into the mid 2020’s. JG had lined up this roster as another fire sale if things go wrong again. Imo Hayes, Names and Spooner will all have to breakout as well to counter a top line that has 50 something points. In other words, I’m not counting on the other three to play as your prototype NHL top line.

          • Sep 27, 2018 at 4:29 pm

            By your hype Kevin Hayes is approaching 1000 points in a season.

            Know what Zib and Kreider HAVE done that Hayes never has? Touched north of 50 points.

            • Sep 27, 2018 at 7:00 pm

              I’d give this remark 100 thumbs up if I could, JB—Mint’s endless spewing about the virtues of Kevin Hayes is very, very tiresome.

    • Sep 27, 2018 at 1:00 pm

      170 is the Over/Under and that is arguably optimistic

    • Sep 27, 2018 at 1:03 pm

      I don’t think the Rangers production will be THAT top-heavy from the 1st line because of the higher level of competition they will face. My best prediction is more balanced numbers shared between the top 3 lines at even-strength. Obviously more points going towards whoever is getting PP minutes.

      • Sep 27, 2018 at 1:21 pm

        I am hopeful that guys like Spooner and Names can pick up some scoring, but can you really expect Chytil, Andersson and Letteri to have more than 25-30 points each?

        • Sep 28, 2018 at 9:03 am

          Dont want to predict, those three will have some ups and downs. i am hoping they shine, i like the three of them.

  • Sep 27, 2018 at 12:46 pm

    Confidence is a force multiplier. Getting coached to play fast and loose and if you make mistakes make them full speed is what we are getting with the new staff. I know we can expect to miss the playoffs. Also know we will not be complacent and these guys like Buch will play hard.

  • Sep 27, 2018 at 1:25 pm

    I am expecting Buchnevich to break out in a big way this season. I’m fairly certain that he will no longer be jerked around and put on 4th line duty whenever the coach deems him to have played poorly. He needs to give consistent effort and be hungry and aggressive. I think that his pre-season bodes well for him to be that player.

  • Sep 27, 2018 at 3:56 pm

    Rangers Cut Eight….

    Gabriel Fontaine , Tim Gettinger, John Gilmour , and Ryan Gropp have been assigned by the Rangers to the Hartford Wolf Pack of the American Hockey League (AHL).

    Looking like Gropp will never make it. By the way – where have you gone Emerson Etem?????

    • Sep 27, 2018 at 4:09 pm

      Etem has been on a PTO with the LA Kings, and surprisingly he’s still in camp.

      • Sep 27, 2018 at 4:57 pm

        I was unaware of that – he must have made some adjustments to his game to still be in camp.

        • Sep 27, 2018 at 6:57 pm

          Yeah, I saw he’d returned from Europe to try out with the Kings. I didn’t know he had a shot at the team still, I found that out when I looked him up, and was shocked by that.

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