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One of the common discussions you’ll see here at BSB is the discussion about luck masking poor play, and poor luck masking good play. Generally speaking, teams that have a PDO (SV%+SH%) over 100, then the team is lucky. It’s a general rule, as skilled teams are generally over 100, especially teams with elite goaltending. There’s credence to the “create your own luck” argument, but abnormally high/low PDOs generally balance out.

That’s why xGF% is used to determine how well a team is actually playing. It takes the quality and quantity of shots taken/allowed and turns it into a stat that is usable. Generally speaking, a higher xGF% means you’re playing well. A team with a high xGF% and a poor record usually has some poor luck, and vice versa. It is rare to see a team that is both bad (xGF%) and unlucky (PDO), but the Rangers managed to do just that.

Warning: Small sample size.

Here’s how the Rangers look in PDO. They are shooting just over 4% as a team, down from the 8% they shot last year. That will eventually change as people other than Mika Zibanejad begin to score. Puck luck, in the form of shooting percentage, certainly played a role in the loss to Colorado, a game in which they controlled xGF%, but still lost because of defensive breakdowns.

So now that we’ve established that the Rangers are on the unlucky side of the PDO equation, we can look into how their on-ice process has been (hint: bad). There’s no chart for xGF%, but the Rangers are the 7th-worst team in this category at 46.46%, meaning they are only expected to get 46% of the goal share on any given night.

For something you might be familiar with, here is a visual of the shot rates (Corsi For/Against). Here again we see the Rangers are in the “bad” category. They are allowing a ton of shots (of high quality, to boot) and not taking many either. All in all, bad process.

There is plenty of blame to go around for the 1-5 start to the season. Jeff Gorton left the team with a gaping hole at center. Alain Vigneault has been alarmingly opaque in explaining his roster decisions. The players seem a little lost and lethargic. But on the bright side Henrik Lundqvist has looked good.

The Rangers are too good to be this bad. Their SH% will climb out of the cellar, and we will see more wins come. As mentioned above, poor shooting luck has certainly accounted for at least one loss. The problem is that the on-ice process has been exceptionally poor. Blame whomever you wish, but the team needs to turn that around. There are many different ways to do so, so pick one and do it.

You can’t make the playoffs in October. However you can certainly miss them. In the tough Metro Division, the Rangers have dug themselves a deep hole. Can they climb out?

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