Brendan smith

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As we reflect on the 2016-17 Rangers season, and unfortunately short postseason, one thing that ought to be clear is that this team’s defense simply isn’t good enough as currently constructed. The Rangers are obviously going to have to do something about Dan Girardi and Marc Staal, may make a serious push for Kevin Shattenkirk, and will most certainly have to give Brady Skjei the bigger role he deserves on this blueline. One other thing became abundantly clear this postseason, and it goes hand in hand with my last point: the Rangers must re-sign Brendan Smith.

This past playoff run, Smith showed that he is absolutely indispensable on the back end alongside Skjei, with his savvy play allowing the youngster to take more liberties and let his offensive potential shine. Their chemistry was plainly evident, and they would make a solid second pairing together.

Assuming the Rangers either acquire Shattenkirk or some other top pairing defenseman to play alongside Ryan McDonagh via trade, that means a top four of McD, Shattenkirk (or whoever), Smith, and Skjei. That’s a pretty solid top two pairings, and you’d sure be able to lean on them heavily to play big minutes.

Statistically, Smith is not going to blow you away, with his relCF% for the past season being only 2.06 and his relxGF% being only 0.66. It is worth keeping in mind however that he played most of the season on a less than stellar Detroit Red Wings team, which likely didn’t do a lot to help those numbers.

Certainly alongside Skjei and behind a revamped top pair, those numbers would also go up. They’re also not terrible numbers; 2.06% better than your team mates over the course of a season is pretty solid, ditto for 0.66% in terms of quality of scoring chances. Basically what that indicates is that you can expect the rest of the team to be at least somewhat better than any given opponent when he’s on the ice. With a solid partner and the kind of depth the rest of this team has (and Detroit simply didn’t) I would be shocked if those numbers didn’t improve.

Aside from his defensive prowess, another reason the Rangers must re-sign Smith is the price they paid to acquire him. A second and third round pick is just too much to pay for only a few months of someone as good as Smith. If the Rangers are serious about changing their ways as far as mortgaging their future goes they’d better not let him going without at least attempting to sign him.

I’d imagine, based on his breakup day comments that he’s happy in New York and sees the team as a legitimate contender, which means the Rangers shouldn’t have too much difficulty bringing him back next year. The big question then becomes at what price.

Given that he’s currently coming off a two-year deal that carries a $2.75m cap hit, he’s probably going to want both a longer term deal and a raise. That might be tricky for the Rangers, but given the way he proved himself since his acquisition, and given the aforementioned price they paid to acquire him, I would imagine management makes some effort to meet him half way. He’s 28 already, and will likely want a deal with a lot of years on it, but if the Rangers are smart they’ll keep it around four years.

The more difficult aspect will be the cap hit, because the Rangers are most likely going to be buying out either Girardi or Staal, and maybe even both (although that seems rather unlikely). This’ll leave the Rangers with some dead cap space, and since they’ve also got some other contracts to work out, most notably the Mika Zibanejad extension, and perhaps a run at Kevin Shattenkirk, money will be tight.

Hopefully the Rangers can get something done around the $4 million mark, although a little bit more wouldn’t be devastating (a little bit less would be most ideal). They can also always offer him more years for less money as a way of making the salary cap calculations work, and then figure out what to do in the latter years of the contract when they come to it. One way or another though, I think the two camps can work something out.

In the end, whatever defensive retooling takes place this summer ought to include a place for Smith. He’s earned it. His chemistry alongside Brady Skjei is palpable, and if the Rangers find a suitable partner for Ryan McDonagh, he’d fill out the top two pairings nicely and give them the kind of blueline that could make it deep into the postseason. My ideal contract for him would be 4×4, but we’ll see what magic Gorton ends up working.

 

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