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AP Photo/Jay LaPrete

Tonight the Rangers and the Senators drop the puck in Game One of the Atlantic Division Final. The Rangers, despite finishing with the better record, do not have home ice advantage. That might actually suit them well, as their record away from MSG is far better than at home. They took two of three in Montreal in the first round, so their road success has translated to the playoffs so far. But Ottawa is not Montreal, and I have some thoughts.

1. Ottawa is not Montreal. This is both good and bad. This is good because the Sens do not have Carey Price. However the Sens are a much quicker and more skilled club. The Rangers were able to keep up with Montreal because the Blueshirts’ defensemen could skate with the relatively slow Habs forwards. The Senators are much quicker up front, so the blue liners are going to have to be on their ‘A’ game. A lot of folks are thinking this will be a quick series, but I think every game will be a toss up. Henrik Lundqvist is going to be the determining factor in this series.

2. The Rangers are going to have to exploit the lack of depth on the blue line for the Sens. When three guys are playing 25+ minutes a night, it doesn’t bode well for long term success against a speedy team like New York. Add on the fact that Erik Karlsson is playing with a pair of fractures in his heel and Marc Methot lost a finger in March, and the Rangers have a huge opportunity here. The bottom three on defense for the Sens are questionable at best, and with two injuries to their top pair, the Sens are vulnerable on the blue line. That said, Karlsson is Karlsson.

3. Lundqvist is going to be the determining factor in this series. Craig Anderson is good, but has some very exploitable weaknesses that the skilled Rangers can take advantage of. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Hank will have to be a miracle worker in this series, but I think he needs to be –at the very least– as good as he was against Montreal.

4. Forechecking and speed are also going to be critical in this series. The 1-1-3 trap that Guy Boucher runs will be tough to break through, and the Rangers will have to follow their strategy that worked so well against Montreal later in the series. Get through the defensive zone with speed, then either gain the zone with the defense on their heels, or dump in and get behind them. Ottawa’s blue liners are better skaters than Montreal’s, so that will be easier said than done. Speed can wear teams down. And very few teams are as fast as the Rangers.

5. Speaking of speed, exploiting Dion Phaneuf is going to be a focal point. He’s going to look to hit people, but as we learned last series, you can’t hit what you can’t catch. Phaneuf is still dangerous when lining up a hit, but he simply can’t skate well enough to keep up. The fourth line for the Rangers –assuming it’s still Grabner-Lindberg-Fast– should eat him alive.

6. If I’m AV, I’m looking to get that fourth line out there against Phaneuf, Ceci, and Harpur. Ceci can skate, but he’s not good in his own end. The other two aren’t strong skaters. Grabner-Lindberg-Fast has speed, skill, and hockey smarts. That combination is dangerous. Add in the lack of foot speed on the bottom-three for Ottawa, and that line could really swing the series for the Rangers.

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