Can the Rangers land Jacob Trouba?

Photo: Shawn Coates/AP

The big news that broke this past weekend was that Winnipeg Jets’ stud defenseman Jacob Trouba has requested a trade. Trouba, the ninth overall pick in 2012, is in the middle of a contract dispute with the Jets. The dispute is over more than money though, as Trouba has stated that he is buried on the depth chart behind Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers, both right-handed defensemen signed to long-term deals.

The 22-year-old defenseman has put up impressive numbers in his first three seasons, with his career highs coming in his rookie year (10-19-29). That may not seem like much, but remember that Trouba gets third pairing and minimal powerplay time. That is not a product of who he is as a player, but a product of commitments by the organization elsewhere, whether right or wrong (we will get to that).

Trouba, while not a proven first pairing player, has all the makings to be one, per Travis Yost. Yost is one of the best hockey minds out there, so his post is a must-read. To summarize, Trouba excels offensively. His counting stats (raw point totals) are lacking, but that likely has to do with ice time. But it’s his rate stats that are impressive.

Offensively, Trouba’s numbers put him in the same sentence as Kevin Shattenkirk, Justin Faulk, Matt Niskanen, Keith Yandle, Ryan Suter, Shea Weber, and Dougie Hamilton. That’s some impressive company. He’s a little less impressive on the defensive side of things (limiting shot attempts/goals against), so he’s not at your elite level defenseman. Even if less impressive –please note that less impressive doesn’t mean bad, it just means not as good as he is offensively–  he’s still got the tools to be a top pairing guy for many years to come.

It’s perfectly ok for a good player to want more ice time to show he can handle the load and be someone the team can count on. However with two players ahead of him, of which only one really should be, he’s stuck. Here’s how he compares to Myers:

Myers has the better overall production numbers, but the bottom half –the shot generation numbers– suggest that he is more of a passenger that is benefiting from better teammates. Trouba blows him out of the water when it comes to generating shot attempts. In theory, if you put Trouba in Myers’ role, he will thrive. Of course, that is in theory, but the underlying numbers and pedigree make it a very calculated risk for any team that acquires him.

Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is looking for a high-end one-for-one swap. Makes sense, as the last players to hit the market like this were Ryan Johansen and Seth Jones, and they were traded for each other.

The Jets have a clear need on the left side of their blue line, an area where the Rangers have two players that would be of immediate help. They also could use some scoring depth. Interestingly enough, the Rangers may actually have the tools to pull of a trade.

Scenario 1: Ryan McDonagh for Trouba, straight up

Put down your pitchforks. This is just a hypothetical, and one that likely won’t happen. But it had to be mentioned, as that’s likely where a conversation begins. So for fun, let’s evaluate it.

McDonagh produces more on a regular basis. That much is clear. However Trouba is the better player when it comes to generating shot attempts. However, McDonagh’s numbers may be are negatively impacted because he plays the majority of his time with Dan Girardi. Not going to beat the dead horse though.

If the Rangers were a team in the need of a complete rebuild and weren’t in the contention conversation, this is something I would entertain. But they are competing. Moving on.

Scenario 2: A package involving one or both of Brady Skjei and J.T. Miller (or Kevin Hayes over Miller, either one)

I posed the question on Twitter the other night, and here are the results:

https://twitter.com/BlueSeatBlogs/status/780202455086698497

This is a lot to give up for Trouba. In a non-McDonagh trade, it’s probably where Chevy starts the conversation. That doesn’t mean it is what Trouba will cost, but it gets the ball rolling. Miller is the proven prize here, as 22-year-old 20-goal/40-point kids aren’t exactly a dime a dozen. The Rangers have the forward depth to manage trading Miller though. Skjei is a relative unknown right now, but as a former first round pick himself, let’s assume he’d be at worst a middle-pair defender.

I feel this is where the Rangers and Jets make a good match if the Jets don’t get the high profile one-for-one trade. Any deal involving a young Rangers forward plus a second piece progresses the conversation.

However the problem here lies with the biggest hold on the Winnipeg roster. It’s not a forward, it’s a left handed defenseman, and a potential top pairing one at that. Skjei may fit that bill, but he doesn’t have three years of experience under his belt like Trouba. We simply don’t know what he is.

Marc Staal won’t get it done either. Not even close.

Scenario 3: A conglomeration of prospects that haven’t played in the NHL and aren’t named Buchnevich, Vesey, or Skjei

Yea this isn’t happening. Need to give to get in this league.

All in all, a deal involving Miller (or Hayes) is likely the starting point for Trouba, but it will take more to get the deal done. The Jets and Rangers make intriguing trade partners though.