Operation Stone Wall in effect (Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

Operation Stone Wall in effect (Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

Over the past few days, we’ve spent a significant amount of time previewing the series between the Rangers and the Penguins, which kicks off tomorrow night. We’ve looked at systems, goalies, and the overall series preview. We dedicated an entire podcast to it. Suffice it to say, this matchup scares the bejesus out of most of us here.

The Rangers have a clear advantage in net and a slight (in my opinion) advantage at forward, especially with the Evgeni Malkin injury. However the Rangers fall woefully short where it matters the most: Overall process and showing improving play as the season progresses.

Possession
corsica.hockey

corsica.hockey

The Penguins got off to a horrid start, but once the calendar turned to the new year, they’ve been on an absolute tear. Above is their rolling average CF% (25 games), and you can see it just keeps getting better. This is a team that had the process right pretty much from the start, just needed that extra bit of luck to finally start clicking, like the Rangers in 2013-2014.

corsica.hockey

corsica.hockey

See how big of a contrast there is between the Rangers and the Penguins? The Rangers finally started paying attention to process in January, their best stretch of overall play of the season. They peaked at the beginning of February, and have been in free fall since. This is not a good look for a team that is going to need significant help to make a run this year.

Possession is the major reason why this matchup terrifies me. The Penguins remind me so much of the 2013-2014 Rangers. They started slow. People questioned them. They turned it on in the middle of the season. They had one of the best records in the 2016 calendar year. Finished second in the division, and are “dark horses” to make a run.

Goaltending/Shooting “Luck”

Likening PDO, goaltending, and shooting to “luck” is a bit of a misnomer, but only partially. There are some significant luck factors in shooting and save percentages, so much so that we have to account for it when we look at team success. But skill matters. Elite goaltending matters. Teams with better skill and goaltending will have higher PDO, especially a team like the Rangers and Henrik Lundqvist.

corsica.hockey

corsica.hockey

This is the Pens PDO, which shows how much their terrible puck luck was affecting their results. They were well below the league average of 100 for almost half the season, a product of unlucky shooting, as Marc-Andre Fleury has been pretty solid all year. Once the shooting came around, they were back around 102, which although slightly above average, accounts for the skill of the team.

corsica.hockey

Courtesy of corsica.hockey

I want to put a pretty big disclaimer on what I said above, how the 102 PDO accounts for the skill of the team. Right now they are shooting 10%, which won’t continue. But this team is skilled enough, like the Rangers, to shoot around 8% at even strength. Couple that with more consistent goaltending –Fleury has been hurt, but should be ready for Game One– and the Pens are a tough team to deal with.

corsica.hockey

corsica.hockey

Meanwhile, the Rangers are almost the polar opposite of the Penguins. They started the season with an astronomical PDO, closer to 112. They’ve regressed back to the expected –by my expectations, at least, based on the explanation above– 102 range.

Therein lies the concern to me: The Rangers aren’t playing well (bad process), and their luck (PDO) is back to expected results. The Penguins are getting the bounces AND playing well. That doesn’t bode well, even if the Penguins are due for a shooting regression.

But if you’ve read this far, you’ve realized that you knew all this already. I didn’t tell you anything you didn’t know from adding the charts. You know the Pens are playing well. You know they’ve been on fire. You know the Rangers have been relatively putrid. You know the Rangers need a miracle from Lundqvist to make a run.

The Penguins have a clear advantage in terms of overall process and performance on the ice. We noted it in the systems and overall preview posts, and now today it shows with the numbers. The Rangers need to figure it all out, and we need to hope that their play this season was them just waiting for the playoffs. If not, this could be a short postseason.

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