Musings

A trade deadline primer for all fans

Trade_Deadline_DL_1415

The trade deadline is right around the corner, and the rumors are flying left and right. Speculation is also rampant. So as we head to the deadline, which is this coming Monday, I have some helpful hints to help you through this stressful time.

1. First and foremost, know the difference between speculation and rumor. A rumor is something concrete, stating that there have been talks, pieces discussed, and a deal could be in the works. Usually these rumors come from two people: Bob McKenzie or Elliotte Friedman. Speculation is different from a rumor. Speculation is saying that the Rangers could deal for Eric Staal because Rick Nash is out. “Could” is the key word there. That’s someone throwing something at a wall. It could make logical sense, it could not. But try and identify the difference, it’ll save you some sanity.

2. Beware of fake accounts. I linked to McKenzie and Friedman above for a reason. Even if they aren’t the first to report something, they will piggyback off the original reporter. Seriously, beware of fake accounts.

3. Remember that the cap matters. The Rangers won’t be sending Oscar Lindberg to Carolina for Eric Staal, straight up. The cap won’t work, unless other roster moves are made (Note that in this particular case, the Rangers could LTIR Nash, but he’d need to be on LTIR for the remainder of the regular season.). Teams can retain salary, up to 50%, but even then, you should use sites like CapFriendly and GeneralFanager to go over the cap space available. Another note about salary retention: That drives up the return.

4. Before reacting to a rumor –most rumors at this time are just speculation, as an FYI– be sure to take a step back and think if it actually makes sense for both teams. I’m not going to link to it because I don’t want to give it hits, but there was a “rumor” about the Rangers trading basically half their prospects for Patrick Marleau. It made no sense, since the Rangers didn’t even give up that much for Keith Yandle, and it didn’t fit under the cap. Context and using your brain are key here.

5. Always consider team needs. The Rangers specifically need another forward, either a top-six or a fourth line penalty killer. They will go for whatever is cheaper. Homerun deals may happen, but it’s more likely that major contracts will be moved at the draft. This means you, Marc Staal trade scenario guy.

6. Seriously, watch out for fake accounts.

7. The hottest commodities now are young, cost controlled NHLers. For the Rangers (and every other team), this means anyone on their ELCs or second contracts. You have to give to get in this league. The Rangers don’t have many cost controlled players or draft picks. Keep that in mind when someone with a big price tag gets rumored to go to the Rangers.

8. Sometimes, no moves are the best moves. The trade you don’t make, like that whole trading for Brad Richards in 2011 thing, are the best trades.

Hopefully this will help some of you stay sane over the next five days or so. If not, well, sorry, and good luck.

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45 Comments

  1. Monday will be an interesting day when we play the blue jackets will this team look the same? I think they will be two or three new guys.

    1. Yes, great post!

      But, I would caution that we shouldn’t expect to see a shift in philosophy from our “new GM”. Gorton is still reporting to Sather. The only thing that has changed are their tiles. No question Gorton will be making the trades, but you can be sure Sather will still be very involved and his influence will still be felt on Monday.

      I doubt seriously that you will see a change of philosophy, since Gorton has been part of the organizational philosophy for years now. If there is a deal to be made to improve the team, I have little doubt the Rangers will go for it if it makes sense.

      1. So Sather pulled a Pope Bendict move… resigns but only to stay behind the scenes…

        the puppet master if you will.

        Wel either way, lets hope we can get better…. poor hank!

        1. He’s the president of the Rangers. He is not retired and still very much involved. Just not handling the day to day GM duties (translation….cell phone no longer glued to his ear 24/7)

      2. Also remember that Gorton was a big influence on Sather. What Sather did was a clue to how Gorton thinks.

        1. Gorton is the GM….Sather is the President. Gorton himself said little would change…..he would still consult with Sather. Sather also sad that.

          So it will be Gorton’s call, with input from his boss. He won’t be going off in a totally different direction.

  2. Nope I won’t be sane unless the Rangers end up acquiring a top 6 forward that we clearly need I’d we’re planning on winning the cup abd definitely another bottom 6 forward who obviously needs to be a proven solid 2 way and strong on the pk. And if by some crazy miracle we’re able to unload Staal I Girardi and actually get a decent return for one of them…. Obviously that’s beyond unlikely but a man can dream can’t he? But the very top priority needs to be a top 6 and a bottom 6 forward.

  3. I’d take Nichuskin. And instead actually about 75-80%serious lol. Now i think Dallas would give us Patrick Eaves or Antoine Roussel for Staal I’d jump all over that if they agreed on Staal for Roussel! There’s a very good bottom 6 forward can play both 3rd and 4th line he’s a dime firecracker doesn’t shy away from ANYONE good pk guy physical fast and also puts some points on the score sheet every now and then.

  4. St Louis needs scoring and seemed to have soured a bit on Shattenkirk.
    Can LA win without Lucic the cap killing FA in July?
    Nash (team is scoring without him) for Shattenkirk and a #2
    Kreider, Girardi, #2 for Lucic and a #2.
    Net net NYR cap next year down $15.5. Both Loosh and Shats for $13.0 or close, NYR become a tougher team to play. Loosh has won a cup, Shats is a tough defender and puck mover. We lose a long term solider in Girardi and potential unrealized in CK and a snake bit Nash.
    D 2016-17..McD, Klein (dont even think of moving him) Yandle (must be resigned) Shattenkirk, McIllrath and Skeij and Staal (if not gone)#7 with Graves coming.
    F Zucc Brass Loosh
    JT Step Hayes
    Stallb Lind Buchen
    Fast DMoore/Jensen Hirivik
    and of course T Glass

    1. Lucic is not an adequate replacement for Nash. That forward group – especially the top 6 – is weak.

      1. Boston, you are right, Lucic is not an adequate replacement for Nash, He would be an upgrade over Nash, especially in the playoffs!!

    2. And for the 10,173rd time, I repeat, Girardi has a NMC and is NOT going to be traded. The Rangers have no interest in dealing him. The player has no interest in leaving. Generally speaking, a player with an NMC (Girardi, Staal, Boyle and Hank) will NOT be dealt unless, a) the team is in full rebuild mode and the player doesn’t want to be part of the rebuild….like with the Leafs, or b) the player simply wants out, usually because of differences with his coach (Gaborik and Torts comes to mind).

      The Rangers are in contention. Girardi and Staal by all accounts love being Rangers. There is virtually no chance they get dealt at this time.

    3. Shaky, I have been on the Lucic band wagon since he made available by Boston last year, and although I see Kreider as a POTENTIAL star, I do not think it will be in a NYR Jersey. I like your trade of Kreider & Girardi ( if he waives his NTC) and the pick, for Lucic & LA’s pick..Lucic is the type of player who stands out come playoff time, a mean player, physical , but who can also check and but the puck in the net. The type of player who the Caps & Islanders would not want to play against. Lucic & Mcllrath on the same team, 🙂 would definitely keep us from ever being pushed around, and would give an instant element of intimidation.

      1. Bobby B you get my drift
        Eddie Eddie Eddie NMC can be changed its a business where nothing is in stone. Think Gretsky.
        NYR management is not going to win with the current roster or in fact the coaches….go to Montreal, Vancouver and Columbus. Nary a winner my friend.

        1. Nothing is in stone, which is true. But what would be the motivation for Girardi or Staal to agree to waive their NMC? There is none. The players don’t want to leave. The Rangers don’t want to trade them. Both parties have to be motivated and right now neither are, to say nothing of finding the right trade partner. You are working off of a premise that has a 1/10th of one percent chance of happening, and that may be generous.

          As Steven Tyler would say, “Dream On!”

          1. Eddie, I disagree with your comment that The Rangers do not want to trade Girardi & Staal, I think they would be gone in a heart beat if it was not for those ridiculous contracts ( Thanks Sather) . Look, lets not kid ourselves , this current group is not the same Ranger team from the last 2 years. Something is way off??. We were right there, 2 years in a row, this year, if we do not shake things up at the trade deadline?? , we will bow out quickly..

            1. Bobby, it’s unknowable obviously what the front office is truly thinking. And of course, the contract play a major factor in their thinking. But I put it to Carp point blank several times in his live chats over the last couple of months. He said over and over…..the team likes the players….the players like the team. No interest from either side to move on.

              Obviously, we can’t deal with hypotheticals such as what would happen IF their contract situation were different. That’s unknown.

              But big ticket contracts for defensemen are a fact of life in the NHL, and as such there are a few key points you and others are missing here. First, if they hadn’t signed Girardi two years ago to THIS deal, he probably gets it elsewhere. His contract may seem outrageous, but that’s the premium rate teams pay for defensemen.

              So if he doesn’t get signed, he’s likely traded at the deadline two years ago. And remember, he was part of what was widely regarded as the best defensive unit in the league. Likely no trip to the SCF without him. What team moves on in that situation?

              Ok, so we get to go back in time and do it again. Girardi traded for prospects maybe? Who knows? But they would then be paying big bucks to keep Stralman. I like Stralman, but I do wonder to what extent he would have been worth the dough NOT paired with Victor Hedman? Hard to say. We can only speculate.

              But how much better would we have been? The Rangers, with the decisions that were made, had the best record in hockey last year. The defense was outstanding. In the playoffs, the Pens and Caps were largely shutdown, and Girardi was a key reason why. Girardi has been Ovechkin’s personal kryptonite over the years. Claude Giroux said a few weeks ago that Girardi is the most underrated player in the NHL. Are you THAT sure that if Girardi had not been re-signed, that the Rangers would have been as good as they were? I think there’s a real chance, in an alternate timeline, that they would have been a much worse team.

              And the Rangers had no other RH defensive options in the system, simply because McIlrath got hurt and it slowed his development. So if your Sather, what would you have done differently?

              Now Staal….again, Rangers had the best record in the league and the best defense in the league last year. Staal was 28yo at the time of the signing and was a key reason why the team was excelling. Skjei was still in college at this time last year. Ryan Graves was in juniors. Neither were close to being ready, and both, at the moment, are still projects that are likely at best six months away. Again, you’re the GM, you have a shot to win last season, what do you do?

              I don’t think any GM would have done anything differently here. Why is it so hard to believe that both players have struggled because of the off-season surgeries, and not because of some horrible downward spiral. Staal is 29. Girardi is 31. Declines at the age are not necessarily linear. I would bet if you asked most talent evaluators if they think both players are more likely to be better or worse next season, I’d predict they’d say better. They are not yet ready for the glue factory. Indeed, Girardi’s play has been substantially better over the past seven weeks. He is a warrior that knows how to get things done in the playoffs. Staal too. You pay a premium for that experience.

              As for being “right there” two years ago, I disagree. This team is on pace to finish with a better record than the team from two years ago. No one thought of the Rangers as a serious playoff threat back then. The Pens were the Caps two years ago….seemingly unbeatable and on their way to the Cup Finals. The Rangers made the big MSL trade at the deadline, the dynamic changed, and they went on an amazing run. Why is it so hard to believe they could do that again? It only happens, I don’t know, all the time in the SC Playoffs!

              1. We forget what the 2013-2014 season was like. Yes, the Rangers had a great playoff run and got to the Finals with a very good team. But Hank willed them past a superior Penguin team and Price’s injury helped a bunch against Montreal.

                As for the regular season, if you replace Cam Talbot (who won nearly all his games) with an average backup, the Rangers would have approached the trade deadline outside the top 8 in the East and perhaps have traded Callahan to San Jose for prospects instead of going for it.

                The playoff run was less inevitable than a similar run this year.

        2. shakey, I hear you loud and clear, in order of preference, get me any of the following. Milian Lucic, Wayne Simmonds ( I know, he is the enemy, but the Guy knows how to play the game) Andrew Ladd, Evander Kane, Kevin Shattenkirk, Chris Neil. This are battle ready playoff foot soldiers. The 94 team knew they were close, but not close enough , thus all those moves at the deadline. We go nowhere with this current roster, and Hank becomes another year older.. Clock is ticking!!

    1. I don’t know if I have ever seen a trade along these lines — but it really does make sense — trading for cap space.

  5. One correction Dave. Rumors are not concrete — they are mentions of concrete things which may or may not be true. So back to your big point — the source of a rumor is very important.

    1. Ray is absolutely right. As a reporter, I can tell you, our mantra is, if your mother says she loves you, confirm it before you report it as fact.

      Even Freidman and McKenzie, as well connected as they are, engage in speculation that is often wrong. It’s their job to generate buzz and web hits.

      Listen carefully, evaluate in your own mind if it makes sense and has any legs, but really, you will know nothing until it is done.

  6. The idea that someone is going to want Nash, who is injured and was not scoring and is going to need to get his legs back when he is finally healed, is just not realistic.

  7. I’d love to see them bring in somebody significant; someone with a little piss and vinegar in the makeup. Not a goon, but someone who would shake up that vanilla locker room just a bit. Somebody whose name has not been bandied about in the media. If they’re content on bringing in some more 3rd and 4th line talent, whats the point? If that’s the case, trade Yandle now, get a prospect and a pick and try again next year with Buchnevich and anybody they could get for Kreider as well as the money coming off the books from Boyle. But unfortunately, I believe they are still in “win now” mode and that means there’s that chance of sacrificing more picks and youth for another aging saviour.

  8. Eric and Jordan Staal for rick Nash and Derek Stepan

    This injects speed and toughness into the lineup. As well as established leadership.

    It works for both teams. It lets Carolina get a up and coming center and dump off guys not playing so hot in Carolina.

    1. Jordan Staal is the most overrated player in the NHL. The only time he was effective was when he was the third line center behind a 24 year old Crosby and Malkin.

      1. JFTR, Jordan Staal’s salary is roughly the average of
        Brass, Zuc, Nash, and Step and his point total is a shade above their average (39 to 38). He is the top scorer on a team that is still in contention despite serious goaltending woes.

        Most overrated – I think not.

    2. Here are the contracts for the STALL brothers:

      Eric – $8.25M UFA – 10 G /22 A = 32 pts.
      Jordan – $6M through 2022-23- 16 G /23 A = 39 pts.
      Marc – $5.7M through 2020-21 – y’all know his contribution this year

      Based on performance these have to three of the top ten worst contracts in the NHL.

      However, I do think Eric “could” be an interesting rental BUT – there is NO FRIGGIN WAY that we should give up any kind of talented youth for him and he is certainly not worth a #1 or #2. Plus cap space would need to be cleared. That being said if Carolina goes into sell mode somebody will pay that price for him

      And if Carolina is going to sell then lets talk about Jeff Skinner who apparently can be had.

      1. Do you think Toronto wold be interested in a Grabner & Parenteau for Lindberg & prospect/draft pick – Would help PP and add speed
        to the 4th line

      2. It would be like having the Hanson brothers except instead of destroying the other team’s faces, they would destroy the Rangers future forever.

  9. We need some more back bone to this team besides #’s 6 &8, I wouldn’t be opposed to getting an arch enemy of ours if they Benefit us. I think Krieder is having an off season and maybe has mentally checked out before the season has even started, so do we trade him idk, he’s got some speed that’s for sure, he could very well explode in the playoffs. With Nash being out they seem to actually play better in my opinion, I personally don’t think we need Nash. All I know is I want them to win, if not for anything, Win for the greatest goaltender in the world henrik, come on he deserves too lift lord Stanley! Either way at the end of the day Lets Go Rangers !

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