Zucc

One of the most pleasant surprises this season, aside from the team’s win streak and the outstanding play of Henrik Lundqvist, has been the way in which Mats Zuccarello has recovered from the scary injury he suffered last spring during the playoffs. Zucc has been one of the most consistent Rangers forwards so far this season, putting up 15 points in 22 games played so far this season, including a hat trick against Toronto. While it might be easy to say that Zuccarello has been the Ranger’s best forward so far this season, by applying certain measures we can see a much more complex picture emerge.

Let’s start with the good news. Mats Zuccarello has outstripped his production at this point last year by a pretty substantial amount. Through 22 games played so far this season he has 10 goals and 10 assists; represented as rates his production is 1.5 G/60, 1.5 A/60, and 3.1 P/60. Compare this to last year when in the same number of games played he had 4 goals and 6 assists for 0.6 G/60, 1 A/60, and 1.6 P/60. Suffice to say that this is marked improvement drawn into high relief by the gravity of the injury he sustained last spring. To say that he’s bounced back would be an understatement.

It’s important to qualify this kind of praise however and put it into context, digging deeper to draw the kinds of conclusions borne out by comparison. Mats Zuccarello’s current PDO is 105.1 and his shooting percentage is 23.3%. Both of these numbers are unsustainable when considering that last season his PDO was 101.8 and his shooting percentage was 9%. These latter numbers are more in line with what we’ve seen from Zucc since he rejoined the team from Metallurg Magnitogorsk in 2012 – his average PDO and shooting percentage since then, not including this seasons numbers, are 102.2 and 9.3%. Interestingly enough his even strength CF% has actually gone down, with his present 48.2% much lower than last seasons 52.4% or his average (again not including this season so far) 52.43% since returning from the KHL. Stephen Burtch’s dCorsi, used to measure the difference between a regression calculated expected Corsi performance and the actual observed value, paint’s a slightly more grim picture, with Zucc performing below expecatations at a value of -3.93 dCorsi/60. Comparing this measurement to last season when he posted a dCorsi/60 value of 1.62, taking into consideration his unsustainable PDO and shooting percentage, as well as his drop in possession and we might be in for some disappointment from Mats Zuccarello in the future (or not, and I’d be happy to be wrong).

Still though, his CF% might creep back up to where it usually sits, leading to offensive production even in the event of his shooting percentage regressing. It’s also worth noting that his exceptional vision and playmaking ability, seen above in clips highlighting a gnarly assist to Rick Nash and his sensational goal against St Louis, are still on display night after night. Furthermore, as Josh’s newly released, super cool PSAM tool shows, his contract is a steal by any measure.

PSAM Forwards (1)

So to wrap it all up, and I realize this is something of a cop out, it’s complicated. Mats Zuccarello’s performance so far has been outstanding but is probably unsustainable, although just as his shooting percentage is likely to come back to his career average so might his CF% (although it might not, given the team’s overall possession woes). The kind of skill set that makes his such a complete package on the ice is still obviously in tact, and looking at his contract compared to the averages for other similar contracts we can see that he’s easily one of the better value players in the league. And while he’s likely to come back down to Earth at some point, the hot streak he’s been on thus far has been a fun one. Hope everybody had a nice Thanksgiving!

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