rangers avalanche

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

*-No goal breakdown from last night or tonight. I’m at a wedding in Maryland. Sorry.

The Rangers won again last night, this time beating the Colorado Avalanche by a score of 2-1. This makes the Rangers 6-0-2 in their last eight games, and 9-2-2 to start the season. They sit atop the Metro Division, and this marks the first time in recent memory that an Alain Vigneault team didn’t start the season with a .500 record.

With any hot start, there are a lot of things to like about the Rangers. But with any hot start, there are some pretty big flaws that are being masked at the moment.

What to Like

  • The goaltending has been phenomenal to start the season. Henrik Lundqvist is already in playoff form, and Antti Raanta is showing that there was no reason to miss Cam Talbot. The two of them combined have a .960 SV% at even strength, tops in the league.
  • The Rangers have some serious offensive depth. The top-six –outside of Mats Zuccarello and Derick Brassard– haven’t scored consistently, but the Rangers aren’t missing a beat. That’s due to the strong play of Kevin “for the love of all that is holy, keep me at center” Hayes and Oscar “why were people doubting that I’d make the team?” Lindberg.
  • Keith Yandle has been exactly as advertised. He’s on pace for another 40 point season, and has really anchored the even-strength offensive production from the blue line. As for the powerplay, well, we will get to that…
  • Kevin Klein has been the best defenseman for the Rangers to start the season. He’s been playing so well that he, at least temporarily, bumped Dan Girardi from the top pair with Ryan McDonagh.
  • Dylan McIlrath has been just fine in his role. He’s getting marginally sheltered (not as much as Yandle/Dan Boyle) zone starts, but he’s moving play up the ice, and he’s playing solid positional defense. Most importantly, he’s not taking himself out of the play to make a big hit. He has some weaknesses for sure, but he’s a decent option for a 6D, and that’s all you can ask of him. Unspectacular defensive play.
  • The penalty kill has been fabulous. It had a rocky start, but they’ve been solid of late. Before last night’s game, the unit had killed something like 45 straight penalties. Penalty killing was a big time strength last year, and the team doesn’t seem to be missing a beat this year.
  • There has been zero impact of losing Carl Hagelin. The bottom-six might even be better this year than last. A lot of this is due to Lindberg, but don’t underestimate the impact of having a fourth line that can actually do its job. Sending Tanner Glass to Hartford was a move that was long overdue, and it shows in the success of the fourth line.
  • Mats Zuccarello.

What Not to Like

  • The defense has been hemorrhaging shots, and has been pretty inconsistent to start the year. We all gush over Klein’s performance, but if he’s your best defenseman, there’s a humongous big (see what I did there?) problem on the blue line. Dan Girardi has been atrocious, and his regression has been very steep. A lot saw regression coming, but I don’t think many expected it to be this severe this quickly.
  • The powerplay is just awful. I really believe it’s because they are lacking a pure trigger man on the off-wing. Klein fits the mold, but at what point is the coaching staff willing to give him a steady chance?
  • The Rangers are shooting at 9.8% at even strength. Their SV% is .960 at even strength. That’s a 105.8 PDO. That will regress. Expect SV% to come down to around .925, and SH% to come down to around 7.5%. Will the defense come around by then? If not, expect some losses.
  • J.T. Miller giveth, J.T. Miller taketh. He’s playing well overall, but he needs to be much more consistent away from the puck. He’s a top-six forward on this team. Once he realizes it and plays like it, it’ll be fun to watch.
  • The top-six in general has been underwhelming. They are controlling possession, but not putting the puck in the net. That will change eventually, but it’s a bit worrisome at the moment.

What Needs More Time

  • Possession – If you look at the overall CF% (48.6%), the Rangers are not a good possession team. But if you look at the game logs, only five games are under 50%. The number is skewed by three sub-45% games. Teams have games like that. They will wind up above 50% for the season, barring significant injuries.
  • Shooting percentage – The Rangers had a very high SH% last year, and have one again this year. I theorized this might be due to playing style (rush based offense). I’ll be doing more analysis on that, but I’m intrigued to see if they can repeat their SH% from last year.
  • Ryan McDonagh – Been a rough start for him. How much of this is attributed to dragging Girardi around the ice? How much is just his own bad start? Won’t know until we see him away from Girardi for extended periods of time.

There’s a saying that it’s never as good as it seems when you’re winning, and never as bad as it seems when you’re losing. The Rangers aren’t this good (neither are the Habs, by the way), but they aren’t as bad as a lot of the stats folks are saying. It’s a long season.

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