viktor stalberg

Stalberg

As expected, the New York Rangers have been relatively quiet this off season due to their cap situation. One NHL transaction that they made that can be seen as prominent is the signing of left wing Viktor Stalberg. At first, some people may have been confused over why the Rangers signed a player who played some games in the AHL to a $1.1 million contract, or why the Rangers signed him when they have young guys like Ryan Bourque and Oscar Lindberg still competing for an NHL spot. But the more I look at this the more it seems like an efficient signing by the New York Rangers.

For those who do not follow me on Twitter, I am currently working on a project that can allow fans and maybe NHL employees alike to view a player at any contract and see if he is worth it in the light of numerous stats. However, instead of talking about just millions we will be talking about cap percentage (cap%).

Why cap percentage?

Simply put, cap inflation is real. Five million dollars per season now is insanely different than $5 million in 2012. This is because currently $5 million is 7% of the cap now,while in 2012 –where the salary cap was $64.3 million– it was 7.7% of the cap. Today Viktor Stalberg will be my test subject.

Firstly, I have already rounded up a bunch of offensive stats but I still have things to add, that said I can provide this information for you:

  • Stalberg’s points/game last season was .40.
  • Stalberg’s point/game over the last three seasons combined is .36.
  • Stalberg’s points/60 was 2.08 last season.
  • Stalberg will make $1.1 million dollars next season, which is 1.5% of the current $71.4 million salary cap.

What I did first was separate every player in the NHL who played a minimum of 10 games last season and put them into separate “Cap Tiers.” I split these tiers based on the cap$% of a contract, so every player in a certain cap% is in a certain tier. I then took the stats mentioned above and found the average of every tier to see what the average player in said tier should produce for that group of cap%.

This brings us to the case of Viktor Stalberg. With this tool I am able to compare Stalberg’s production to the average player that makes around his new contract.

Some background:

“Cap Tier” means what group the player falls under do to the cap% of his contract.

  • “Scope” is the word I use for this project because I have three ways of splitting players up:  By intervals of .5%, intervals of .75%, and intervals of 1%. These all offer different ways to possibly look at a player.
  • This is split by forwards and defense, as value changes based on position.
  • A glossary will be provided along with this tool when it goes public that clearly outlines what cap%’s belong in which tiers for a specific scope.
  • Within the tool will be a drop down menu that allows people to search for a player or players to investigate with relative ease.
  • I will provide a comprehensive video on how to use this tool when I make it public.
  • In the pictures in the post you will see somethings that say something like “FORWARD 3” that just means this is the average stats for all players in tier 3 and I practically made them its own player so people can use it to compare. Below is an example:

    Example of the drop down menu to search a player

    Example of the drop down menu

  • This is a work in progress and I am always listening to possible ways to improve upon this so all ideas are welcome.
Stalberg in Scope 1

Stalberg in Scope 1

Above is the first examination of Stalberg in scope 1. Scope 1 consists of many tiers because the range of cap% in every tier is a small .5%. This scope is primarily used if you want to really penny pinch a contract. Under this view it’s clearly seen that Stalberg, even in the tough season last year, had still outperformed the average player in his cap tier (player on similar contract). Under this scope, Stalberg belongs in tier 3, which includes players that make between 1.5% and 2.0% of the salary cap.

Some may then say, “well, .5% isn’t that big of a deal, what about including players who make slightly more but can still fit under the cap”. In this case you can either use scope 2 (range of .75%) or scope 3 (range of 1%).

Scope 2

Scope 2

As mentioned above, scope 2 now includes more players because the range is much larger. Stalberg is in tier 2 here because this includes players from 1% of the salary cap to 1.75% of the salary cap. Stalberg is still above the average in almost every stat category.

Scope 3

Scope 3

Scope 3 includes players within a 1% of the cap range. Under this view Stalberg (and his 1.5% of the salary cap contract) falls into the category that includes players between 1% of the salary cap and 2% of the salary cap, and yet is still above the average.

Stat wise, the Rangers signed Stalberg to a very cap friendly contract for them that is poised to be a success but there is even more you can do with this tool. First you can compare him to the other tiers and see how he stacks up against the average players that make a little more than him.

Screen Shot 2015-07-20 at 10.53.04 PM

under scope 1

under Scope 2

under Scope 2

Once this tool is public, you can also be able to compare player to player. For example, we all know that the New York Rangers and Derek Stepan are in the middle of some pretty important contract negotiations. We also know that the Ducks and Ryan Kesler signed a pretty lucrative deal just earlier last week. With this tool, you are able to bring up Derek Stepan and Ryan Kesler, and then using the Glossary I will provide with the project, choose the tier that you want to compare the players to.

In this specific case of Stepan vs. Kesler vs. Kesler’s new contract, we use tier 19 because that is where the $6.8 million falls under. When these visuals are all in one place we see something pretty interesting. Kesler, who is older, may have trouble keeping up to the average player in this tier. Stepan, who is younger, can keep up and exceed the average in most stats in that cap% range.

Screen Shot 2015-07-15 at 12.15.26 PM

Stepan vs Kesler vs the average player in Kesler’s new $6.8 million contract

This tool can also eventually help people predict a possible new contract for a player. One great example is division rival Jakub Voracek of the Philadelphia Flyers. Voracek is one of the better offensive talents in the league and is on a bargain of a contract, but will need a new deal soon. With this tool you can bring up Voracek and as many cap% tiers as you want in order to try to find the best possible comparable. In the case below, I took Voracek and a bunch of average tier players and saw that tier 21 seems like a very close comparable. Then using the glossary at the bottom of the page, I see that Tier 21 is between 10.5% and 11% of the cap, which would put the estimated contract between $7.49 million and $7.8 million.

Jakub Voracek under scope 1

Jakub Voracek under scope 1

I hope this tool can eventually help fans of every team look and analyze contracts a different way. I am by no means disregarding things such as blocking shots, hitting, and being a great player in the room. I am hoping this tool shows that, while those things mentioned above are important, it may not make sense to pay a premium for it if the player being signed cannot keep up with the production in the tier you are putting him in.

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