Game Thread

Game 68: Pad the lead in Florida

After winning last night in Buffalo, the Rangers have won four in a row and five of their last six, including a 4-0-1 run against five teams that will be in the playoffs come April. All that has led to a three point lead on the Islanders with four games in hand. One of those games in hand is tonight in Florida to take on the Panthers. The Panthers are six points back of a wild card spot with 14 games left to play. In short, they need points.

The Panthers went out and grabbed Jaromir Jagr at the trade deadline, hoping he could help push them over the edge. After all, any team with Roberto Luongo in net has a chance every night. But that was before the Luongo and Al Montoya injuries. With both going down in the same game, Dan Ellis now minds the net for the Panthers.

Many thought the Panthers would be a bottom feeder, but the fact that they are still in the hunt is truly amazing. That said, the Panthers have really ridden that loser point advantage, collecting a lead-leading 14 of them thus far. This is a young team fighting for its playoff lives, so this won’t be a cake walk, but the Rangers need to take advantage of Ellis in net.

What have they done lately?

The Panthers have been above hockey .500 of late, at 5-3-2 in their last ten games. Their possession (USAT/FF) game, however, has taken a pretty big hit. It peaked around December with a 55% rolling average, but they have been steadily decreasing for the past two months. They’ve been a sub-50% possession team for some time now, although they are slowly coming towards 50%. The Rangers have the advantage here:

Panthers in orange.
Panthers in orange.

As mentioned above, the Panthers have had a bunch of goaltending injuries, leading to Ellis playing in net the past four games. With that, you’d expect a drop in SPSV%/PDO, as this is heavily weighted by goaltender performance. While a huge drop in SPSV%/PDO did occur, it didn’t happen as a result of the injuries. In fact, just the opposite has occurred.

Panthers in orange.
Panthers in orange.

That steep, steep drop at the end of February. That big drop came when the Panthers had a run against the red-hot Senators, the Penguins, and the Blackhawks twice. So it wasn’t the injury bug that caused that drop. Funny enough, goaltending has been an issue of late, but Ellis –of all people– has been steadying them over the past four games (3-0-1 since taking over), playing to a .925 SV%.

Florida orange(s).
Florida orange(s).

So that drop in SPSV%/PDO is goaltending related –likely due to scheduling– but it is not due to the goaltending injuries. Just an interesting note. Florida’s SH% has been steady throughout the year, not getting many huge peaks and valleys. Goaltending was the issue.

Panthers Systems

Gerard Gallant has the Panthers running a 1-2-2 forecheck, which they will use aggressively or conservatively pending the game situation (e.g., the score, puck location, etc.). In their own end, the Panthers play a straight up zone defense. For special teams, Gallant runs a standard umbrella power play and diamond force/box penalty kill system.

Panthers Lines

Jussi Jokinen-Nick Bjugstad-Brad Boyes
Jonathan Huberdeau-Aleksander Barkov-Jaromir Jagr
Brandon Pirri-Vincent Trochek-Jimmy Hayes
Derek MacKenzie-Dave Bolland-Scottie Upshall

Brian Campbell-Aaron Ekblad
Willie Mitchell-Erik Gudbranson
Dmitriy Kulikov-Steve Kampfer

PP1: Boyes-Huberdeau-Pirri-Jokinen-Campbell
PP2: Hayes-Barkov-Bjugstad-Jagr-Ekblad

PK: MacKenzie, Bolland, Jokinen, Mitchell, Gudbranson, Ekblad, Campbell

Dan Ellis gets the start.

Rangers Lines

Rick NashDerick BrassardMats Zuccarello
Chris Kreider
Derek StepanMartin St. Louis
Carl HagelinKevin HayesJ.T. Miller
James Sheppard-Dominic MooreJesper Fast

Ryan McDonaghDan Girardi
Marc StaalDan Boyle
Keith YandleMatt Hunwick

PP1: McDonagh, Yandle, Kreider, Stepan, MSL
PP2: Boyle, Girardi, Nash, Brassard, Zuccarello

PK: Stepan, Nash, Girardi, Staal, Moore, Fast, Hunwick, Boyle, Hagelin, Klein, McDonagh, MSL

Cam Talbot is in net.

Scratches/Injuries: Henrik Lundqvist (throat), Kevin Klein (arm), Tanner Glass (upper body)

Crazy Prediction: Sheppard gets his first goal as a Ranger.

Be sure to check out our ticket link if you’re looking for tickets to the game. Game time is 5pm on MSG.

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  • “Crazy Prediction: Sheppard gets his first goal as a Ranger.”

    Do you let your girl touch your crystal balls? If it were me, I would, but I’d make sure she knew how lucky she was. LOL

  • Talbot!!!! What a save! Which one? So many!

    Luck plays a part in this game, but the better team (better goalie?) usually wins.

    I love this team.

    Dave, I love your analyses and your crazy predictions. This is the only Ranger site I look at every day.

    • Hopefully MSL wasn’t hurt bad enough to miss any games. It didn’t look good and it takes old men longer to recover from injuries like that.

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