rangers islanders 2015

The New York Rangers are on Long Island tonight to take on the New York Islanders in what could be the last game played between these two clubs at the Nassau Coliseum. There is no guarantee these two meet in the playoffs, as it appears that both teams will need to win their first round series in order to meet in the Division Finals.

The Isles are lucky tonight, getting injured winger Kyle Okposo back. Okposo has been out since the All Star break with a detached retina, rumored to have occurred from vomiting after a heavy night of drinking during the break. The Rangers made one lineup change: Tanner Glass for James Sheppard on the fourth line.

The Isles are 3-1 against the Rangers this season, with the Rangers taking the most recent game. This finale likely decides who wins the division, as the Isles are three points up, but the Rangers have four games in hand. A win for the Rangers means they are one point back with four games in hand. A loss puts them five points back with four games in hand. The Penguins are lurking, but it’s tough to leap frog two teams in the three-point game system we have nowadays.

What have they done lately?

The Isles have been above hockey .500, but are 5-2-3 in their last ten games. Their possession game has been taking a hit lately, and while that may be due to the loss of Okposo for a month, it’s worth noting that the Rangers are trending up while the Isles are trending down.

Rangers trending up here.

Rangers trending up here.

The Rangers have been one of the best possession teams in the league since getting fully healthy in December (Henrik Lundqvist notwithstanding). The Isles have always been one of the best, but they’ve been dipping down a lot lately. Okposo’s injury has a lot to do with that, but so does Mikhail Grabovski’s.

It’s not just possession that’s hurting the Isles, their SPSV%/PDO has been dipping lately too:

SPSV%/PDO

SPSV%/PDO

When you see a big dip like that, especially in a short time frame, you expect the main culprit to be goaltending. Looking at the SV%,

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Major trend downward for the Isles, while the Rangers are getting better goaltending lately

The Isles goaltending has been subpar lately, which is certainly a contributing factor to their dropping SPSV%/PDO. But it’s not just that, it’s their shooting rate that’s dropping as well.

NYR dropping hard in SH%.

NYR dropping hard in SH%.

The Isles SH% is dropping a bit, but it’s around their average. Meanwhile, and more alarmingly, the Rangers have had a huge drop in SH%. This was certainly expected, as they weren’t going to ride a 10% shot rate all year.

When you put all this together, you get an Isles team trending down, but getting one of their best players back. This will be a dogfight in a game that will probably decide the division.

Isles Systems

Like the Rangers, Isles head coach Jack Capuano has the Isles running a 1-2-2 forecheck and a 1-1-3 lock, which they use aggressively or conservatively depending on the game situation (e.g., score, time left in period, etc.). In the defensive zone, the Isles are bit different than the Blueshirts. Capuano has them playing man-on-man up high, but collapse into a zone defense when the puck is down low. On special teams, the Isles rotate between a 1-3-1 and 1-2-2 power play and a hybrid penalty kill.

Isles Lines

Josh Bailey-John Tavares-Kyle Okposo
Anders Lee-Frans Nielsen-Ryan Strome
Michael Grabner-Brock Nelson-Tyler Kennedy
Matt Martin-Casey Cizikas-Cal Clutterbuck

Nick Leddy-Johnny Boychuck
Calvin de Haan-Travis Hamonic
Thomas Hickey-Lubomir Visnovsky

PP1: Tavares-Nelson-Nielsen-Okposo-Boychuk
PP2:Lee-Bailey-Strome-Leddy-Hamonic

PK: Cizikas, Grabner, Hamonic, Nelson, Strome, Nielsen, de Haan, Boychuk, Hickey, Clutterbuck

Jaroslav Halak will get the start in net.

Rangers Lines

Rick NashDerick BrassardMats Zuccarello
Chris Kreider
Derek StepanMartin St. Louis
Carl HagelinKevin HayesJ.T. Miller
Tanner Glass-Dominic MooreJesper Fast

Ryan McDonaghDan Girardi
Marc StaalKevin Klein
Keith YandleDan Boyle

PP1: McDonagh, Yandle, Kreider, Stepan, MSL
PP2: Boyle, Girardi, Nash, Brassard, Zuccarello

PK: Stepan, Nash, Girardi, Staal, Moore, Fast, Hunwick, Boyle, Hagelin, Klein, McDonagh, MSL

Cam Talbot is in net.

Scratches/Injuries: Henrik Lundqvist (throat), James Sheppard (healthy), Matt Hunwick (healthy)

Crazy Prediction: Glass gets a point.

Be sure to check out our ticket link if you’re looking for tickets to the game. Game time is 7pm on MSG.

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