Game Thread

Game 52: Easy stretch starts in Toronto

The New York Rangers have a stretch of three games against pretty easy opponents, and the first of them is the Toronto Maple Leafs. Of course, it’s funny because the Rangers have lost twice to Toronto, but it’s all about when you play your opponent. The Leafs were off to a ridiculously hot start and the Rangers were off to a slow start. Both losses came before the Rangers basically won December.

It was right around that time that the Leafs fired Randy Carlyle and promoted Peter Horachek to interim head coach. The Leafs haven’t scored under Horachek. but they’ve played much better defense. Of course, they’ve been pretty god awful in that stretch. Before the win against Edmonton, the Leafs had lost 11 (!!!) in a row, with one coming in a shootout. Eleven losses in which they scored just 11 goals, getting shutout four times as well. Yeesh.

What have they done lately?

Well, the Leafs have been bad, as mentioned above. But it’s worth noting that they are doing a much better job with the puck and limiting shot attempts, which has overall raised their FF%, a sign of improvement under Horacheck.

nyr tor ff

That leads us to believe that shoddy goaltending or poor shooting (PDO) has bee a major factor in the recent terrible stretch, and it’s a bit of both actually. Here’s overall PDO, with a massive tank job starting in January.

nyr tor pdo

Here’s the shooting percentage, dropping from 10% to 5% over that span. Wow.

nyr tor sh

And save percentage, dropping from 94% to a low of under 90%. That’s just awful.

nyr tor sv

Now for the scary part: When the SH% evens out a bit towards 7%, the Leafs could play spoiler for teams looking to make up points for playoff seeding. The goaltending will also come around. The biggest issue was their possession, which they’ve fixed. The Leafs are a flawed team, for sure, but they have the skill to make a team pay if taken too lightly.

Leafs Systems

Under Carlyle, the Leafs mostly rotated between an aggressive 1-2-2 forecheck  and a passive 1-2-2. However, they mixed in a 2-1-2 forecheck on occasion depending on game situation. In the defensive zone, the Leafs generally played a collapsing box, which will leave the point men open for opportunities. Their powerplay (umbrella) was fairly standard. On the kill, the Leafs rotated between PK strategies depending on opposition setup.

There aren’t many differences with the Leafs under Horachek. He didn’t appear to change the systems much, but it also looks like he actually started enforcing the systems a bit more. Under Carlyle, the Leafs were trading chances and not playing defense. Horachek has them focused on clogging the neutral zone and preventing zone entries. It has worked, but the Leafs, of course, can’t score.

Leafs Lines

Daniel Winnik-Nazem Kadri-Mike Santorelli
Leo Komarov-Peter Holland-Joffrey Lupul
James van Riemsdyk-Tyler Bozak-Phil Kessel
David Booth-Trevor Smith-Richard Pannik

Jake Gardiner-Stephane Robidas
Morgan Reilly-Roman Polak
Korbinian Holzer-Cody Franson

PP1: Panik-Holland-Kadri-Lupul-Gardiner
PP2: JVR-Bozak-Kessel-Franson-Reilly

PK: Smith, Winnik, Komarov, Booth, Santorelli, Kadri, Robidas, Polak, Franson, Holzer

James Reimer gets the start.

Rangers Lines

Rick NashDerek StepanMartin St. Louis
Chris KreiderDerick BrassardMats Zuccarello
Carl HagelinKevin HayesJ.T. Miller
Tanner GlassDominic MooreLee Stempniak

Ryan McDonaghDan Girardi
Marc StaalKevin Klein
John MooreDan Boyle

PP1: MSL-Brassard-Stepan-Nash-Boyle
PP2: Stempniak-Kreider-Zucc-Girardi-McDonagh

PK: Stepan, Nash, Girardi, Staal, Moore, Fast, Hunwick, Boyle, Hagelin, Klein, McDonagh, MSL

Cam Talbot is in net.

Scratches/Injuries: Henrik Lundqvist (throat), Jesper Fast (leg), Matt Hunwick (healthy)

Be sure to check out our ticket link if you’re looking for tickets to the game. Game time is 7:30pm on MSG.

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  • Don’t jinx us by saying this . Are you trying to say we should just stay home and have bettman give us the 6 points . Are 3 games are going to be tough to win . Arizona went into Chicago last night and won TO won its last game and Colo is desperate for points we need to play desperate hockey as well . Need to try to win the division . LGR

  • dave,
    you asked about the website.
    im having trouble on my mobile device both in loading and commenting.
    in addition when loading on my desktop, which cost me a pretty penny, it fails then i have to reload the site and then it give me all of your thumbnails for the recent posts stacked underneath each other, and then it goes to what ever you guys have designed.

    yes its annoying, yes i still love your analysis despite the design, just saying

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