Thoughts following the six game win streak

The New York Rangers have spun off six straight wins against teams that they really needed to beat to remain relevant in the Metro Division. The win that started it all was an overtime win against the Penguins, followed by wins over Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, and two over Carolina. The wins bumped them to 38 points in 31 games, good for 4th in the division and the 2nd wild card spot in the conference.

The good thing is that the Rangers have two games in hand on all teams ahead of them in the Metro, and three games in hand on the Boston Bruins (37 points), who will eventually climb back into the playoff picture once Florida and Toronto falter. However, it would be nice to slip into third place with a win tonight against the Caps (40 points in 33 games).

If the Rangers win tonight against Washington, there’s a chance they can win out the rest of the month. Games against the Devils and at Dallas/Florida remain following the Christmas break. The Devils can’t score, the Stars can’t play defense, and Florida has eight loser points. Let’s not count chickens before they hatch though.

You will notice that the Rangers didn’t really gain much ground in the division with those wins. That’s because the Pens, Isles, and Caps all kept pace with win streaks of their own. That’s why tonight’s game is very important. A win in regulation is critical.

Although you can’t really nitpick on the current six-game win streak, the powerplay has been bad (as Suit pointed out this morning) and the wins haven’t all been pretty. The Rangers hit an unlucky streak against Carolina but still came out with wins. The good thing is that they absolutely dominated them, so while there were some lazy spots, it wasn’t a case of the Rangers playing down to their opponent.

Puck possession certainly has been trending in the right direction. The chart below shows FF% (the first of the two charts) at even strength when the score is within 1 goal (five-game rolling average):

The second chart shows FF% density. The highest point in this chart is the most frequent FF% for the Rangers, which is slightly below 50%. Their average is right around 50%. Ideally you want that to be higher, but it has certainly moved in the right direction the last few games (see the top chart). It’s worth noting that the bottom chart is in all scoring situations, so score effects isn’t taken into account.

The Rangers are certainly moving in the right direction, and the best teams beat up on the bad teams while treading water against the good teams. There’s cause for optimism here, but the Rangers need to continue putting up W’s to stay relevant in the Metro. The Pens and Isles aren’t going anywhere.