Do hits and blocked shots correlate to (lack of) puck possession?

This is what stat geeks wear to formal occasions.

As the quest for better stats has come, so has more analysis into the stats that are currently available via NHL.com. Hits and blocked shots have become more of the industry standard when looking at defensive prowess. Hits is a relatively “new” stat in the sense that people are using it more than PIMs lately. PIMs have gone the way of the dodo in terms of positive value, and people have replaced it with hits. The theory is that PIMs used to tell how physical a player was, but as more clutch-and-grab was introduced (and then eliminated with some inconsistent officiating post-lockout), PIM numbers grew with stick penalties and not fights/roughing. Hits have been used to evaluate the physicality of a player’s game.

The same theory applies for blocked shots, as the more blocked shots a player has, the more defensively responsible he is (such is the theory). While this is more system dependent, a team playing a low-zone collapse will block more shots than a team playing a strong side overload, the generalization still exists that if you are blocking shots, you are good defensively. It was the Rangers MO during the 2011-2012 season, although they backed away from it during the 2013 season.

However, these are defensive stats, meaning that these stats only increase if you don’t have the puck. You can’t deliver a hit if you are controlling the play in the offensive zone. You can only block a shot if the opponent has the puck in your zone. Both of these stats go up when you don’t control the puck. The theory is that teams with lower FF%/CF% will generally have more blocked shots and more hits. But the theory in itself hasn’t really been tested (at least I haven’t seen it tested) because we have CF% and FF%. Since those are still new-ish stats, I think it’s worth diving into this generalization.

While this is the general theory, it is not entirely accurate. Looking at FF% (remember, Corsi includes blocked shot attempts, Fenwick does not), the worst teams in the league were Toronto, Buffalo, Edmonton, Columbus, and Dallas. All five teams took less than 48% of the shot attempts over the course of the season. For every 1,000 shot attempts between them and their opponents, these five teams took less than 480 of them. However, only Toronto is seen in the top-five for blocked shots and hits (led the league in both categories). Only Edmonton (BS – 9th, Hits – 21st), cracked the top-ten in either category, while Buffalo (BS – 11th, Hits – 19th), Columbus (BS – 23rd, Hits – 12th), and Dallas (BS – 19th, Hits – 11th) remained outside the top-ten.

The bottom-five in CF% last season: Toronto, Edmonton, Buffalo, Nashville, Columbus. Nashville is the only new team here, and they sat 25th in hits and 13th in blocked shots. So again, this theory doesn’t necessarily apply for this season. But since this was just a 48 game season, it’s worth going into the 2011-2012 and 2010-2011 seasons as well.

In 2011-2012, the worst Fenwick teams were Minnesota, Calgary, Nashville, Columbus, and Montreal. Tampa Bay replaces Montreal in the worst Corsi teams, although the order of the teams does change. Only Columbus is in the top-ten in hits, but Minnesota, Montreal, and Tampa Bay were all in the top-ten in blocked shots (via NHL.com).

In 2010-2011, the worst Fenwick teams were Minnesota, Anaheim, Edmonton, the Islanders, and Toronto. The worst Corsi teams were essentially the same, but Colorado replaced Toronto. On NHL.com, Toronto and Anaheim were in the top-ten in hits, but the Islanders, Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, and Anaheim were all in the top-ten in blocked shots.

The data seems to suggest that hits are not dependent on puck possession. This doesn’t surprise me, as hits are generally a product of the type of players a team has. A team like the Rangers –one that has several players who finish checks regularly– will usually be in the top-ten in this category. However, this is usually dependent on the home scorekeeper, but that’s a whole other ballgame that is impossible to analyze accurately.

As for blocked shots, there appears to be some correlation between poor puck possession and quantity of blocked shots. That said, there is a deeper analysis to this that needs to be done. Blocked shots is very system-dependent, and teams that are instructed to block shots will generally have more blocked shots than those that don’t. The next step in this is taking these bottom-five in Fenwick and Corsi and looking into how the coaches run their teams. However, that is analysis for a different post.