The Metrics We Use
In an effort to gain more of an understanding of a player’s value to his team, specifically players we can’t watch daily, we are making more of an effort to use metrics in our analyses. It’s not to say we are shunning goals, assists, powerplay points, and stats of that ilk; but we will generally try to stay away from stats that are more team based, like plus/minus. It’s simply because there are now better options to use.
All but two of the metrics listed here were created by Behind The Net. The other two metrics (WAT, PVT) are based off of metrics they have created.
Goals Versus Threshold (GVT): GVT was the first of the metrics to gain popularity. To first define the “threshold”, it simply means “replacement player”. The “replacement player” here is the top AHL/minor leaguer (note: NOT the top prospect, per se), or the best available free agent in the middle of the season. Glen Miller of SNY Rangers Blog put this into Ranger terms and noted that a replacement player is someone like Chad Kolarik, Kris Newbury, or Andre Deveaux. Simply put, GVT is the number of goals a player is worth in relation to a replacement player over the course of a season.
In the 2010-2011 season, Marian Gaborik finished with a GVT of 10.2, which means his presence on the Rangers meant a little more than 10 additional goals that season. Comparatively, Henrik Lundqvist finished with a GVT of 29.6, which means that his presence on the Rangers saved them a little less than 30 goals throughout the season.
GVT is a combination of a player’s offensive, defensive, and shootout contributions for skaters, and the goaltending and shootout contributions for the goalies. The formula is very complex, and I did not come up with it, so I cannot comment on it. But, the formula does a fair job at weighing these attributes, and adjusting them for position. For example, a defenseman’s defensive contributions will count more than his offensive contributions. Ice time and quality of ice time is also measured in this formula.
Points Versus Threshold (PVT): PVT is a metric that I created after reading Miller’s post on WAT (explained after the jump). Simply put, I felt that points were an easier way to judge a player’s worth in the standings than wins, as points earned in the shootout play a large role in hockey. Using Tom Awad’s note that 6 goals (GVT) = 1 win (WAT), and 3 goals (GVT) = 1 point (PVT), I simply took the GVT and divided by 3 to come up with PVT.
