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How hard is regression going to hit Cam Talbot?

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

There was a time last season that Henrik Lundqvist was playing so poorly, and Cam Talbot was playing so well, that a very small but very vocal segment of the fan base was calling for a change at the number one spot. Imagine that. Crazy, right? But, it happened. Small sample sizes can do wacky things to people’s perceptions. Talbot had a phenomenal 2013-2014 season, but has struggled so far (relatively speaking) in the new campaign.

Last year, Talbot ended the season with a 1.64 GAA and a .941 save percentage in 21 games played. If he had put up those numbers over a starter’s workload, he would have run away with the Vezina. We all knew (hopefully) that these flawed metrics, although nice to see from our backup, were not reflective of his true talent level. In fairness, they aren’t reflective of anyone’s true talent level.

In 4 games so far this season, Talbot’s GAA has ballooned to 3.48 and his save percentage has slid to .880. Neither of those numbers are particularly pretty. I’ve seen comments on the Twitters and other social media about how hard regression is hitting Talbot, which naturally begs the question: what is the mean he is regressing to?

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BSB live chat 10.31.14

Live Blog BSB Live Chat 10.31.14
 

Friday chat reminder

Happy Friday, BSB faithful!  We’ve had a long, between game layoff, but no shortage of Ranger-related news.  The imminent return of Derek Stepan, John Moore’s suspension, line combos, defensive pairs, the last time anyone has seen Cam Talbot alive…  Join me today for a chat on all these topics and more, starting at Noon today.  Don’t forget to drop by at 11:45am and fill up that queue.  See everyone in a few short hours!

Building a better goaltending statistic

Wikipedia.org

Wikipedia.org

Over the past few years, the debate has grown more intense about the validity and reliance on #fancystats. The concept of quantifying the game has been a theme we have run with around here, albeit with the conceit that there is no perfect, all-knowing stat that can be universally relied upon to demonstrate a player’s ability level.

Statistics trying to quantify human athletic performance are inherently limited. There are very human characteristics in play; such as intelligence, judgment, emotion, situational awareness, etc. It makes it difficult to measure performance as if they were vital signs. I think that to fully expect that level of quantification or to vilify the statistic for being unable to is missing the point.

Much like politics, I think the emergence of these statistics and the resistance to adoption has pushed the two positions out to the extremes. The old school hockey community has written them off or marginalized their effectiveness, citing “games are played on the ice, not on a spreadsheet”, or taking pot shots at the Maple Leafs for hiring Kyle Dubas for their Assistant GM position, and various stats writers to make up a new analytics department. Read more »

Thoughts following Thursday night’s shootout win

Al Bello/Getty Images

Al Bello/Getty Images

Since we often preach patience and the long-view around here, I find it very difficult to identify specific narrative topics when the season is only five games old.  Many of our observations will normalize or end up a blip on the big picture radar.  Most sample sizes are too small, trends too tenuous and in the case of the Rangers, too injury dependent.  Once Stepan and Boyle return, we will start to see the true colors of this team, but until then, I feel like some random thoughts are more appropriate than digging into too much data or player performance numbers. I’ll be curious to see if your thoughts are consistent with mine during this time of upheaval…

  • Is it wrong that I was excited just to see that second win so things didn’t spiral out of control like last October?
  • Man, Lee Stempniak has been great. We all were fully on-board with the signing when it happened, but he has gotten off to a much better start than we could have reasonably expected.
  • Ryan McDonagh played over 30 minutes last night. In October. Loco.
  • Rick Nash is a monster. I had a feeling that the post-concussion symptoms were holding him back last season. He was horribly snake bitten in the playoffs, but has broken out again in a big way to start this year. Goals aside, he had made strong moves to the net, utilizing his size and reach with great results. If he can stay healthy, he will be an absolute force this season.

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BSB live chat 10.10.14

Live Blog BSB Live Chat 10.10.14
 

Friday chat reminder

Join me this afternoon for the first live chat of the regular season!  Plenty to discuss after yesterday’s opening night victory; Rick Nash’s big night, Dan Boyle’s injury, MSL at center, systems, whatever.  We will get started at 1pm, but make sure to stop by at 12:45pm and fill up the queue.  See everyone in a couple hours!

BSB live chat

Live Blog BSB Live Chat 10.3.14
 

Friday live chat reminder

I realized last night that the next time I post, the regular season will be under way.  Crazy.  Anyway, it’s been an interesting preseason, so let’s chat about it.  We’ll get going at noon, but make sure to stop by at 11:45am to start filling that queue.  We will talk Anthony Duclair’s exceptional performance, line combos, depth spots, whatever the people want.  See everyone at noon!

Keep an eye on Cedrick Desjardins

While we all know that the Rangers success lives and dies with Henrik Lundqvist’s health and performance (as it should), there has always been an undercurrent of concern from the Rangers fan base about a lack of overall goaltending depth in the system. With Martin Biron retiring and Cam Talbot graduating to the NHL, the problem has become more pronounced, especially with Talbot likely to depart after this season in pursuit of more playing time.

Slats & Co. addressed this issue to an extent by drafting Brandon Halverson and Igor Shestyorkin this past June. As exciting as those two prospects are, Halverson will continue to ply his trade in the CHL for the foreseeable future while Shestyorkin will be firmly planted in the KHL. This creates a serious gap in viable options in Hartford in the event of injury. Read more »