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Building a better goaltending statistic

Wikipedia.org

Wikipedia.org

Over the past few years, the debate has grown more intense about the validity and reliance on #fancystats. The concept of quantifying the game has been a theme we have run with around here, albeit with the conceit that there is no perfect, all-knowing stat that can be universally relied upon to demonstrate a player’s ability level.

Statistics trying to quantify human athletic performance are inherently limited. There are very human characteristics in play; such as intelligence, judgment, emotion, situational awareness, etc. It makes it difficult to measure performance as if they were vital signs. I think that to fully expect that level of quantification or to vilify the statistic for being unable to is missing the point.

Much like politics, I think the emergence of these statistics and the resistance to adoption has pushed the two positions out to the extremes. The old school hockey community has written them off or marginalized their effectiveness, citing “games are played on the ice, not on a spreadsheet”, or taking pot shots at the Maple Leafs for hiring Kyle Dubas for their Assistant GM position, and various stats writers to make up a new analytics department. Read more »

Thoughts following Thursday night’s shootout win

Al Bello/Getty Images

Al Bello/Getty Images

Since we often preach patience and the long-view around here, I find it very difficult to identify specific narrative topics when the season is only five games old.  Many of our observations will normalize or end up a blip on the big picture radar.  Most sample sizes are too small, trends too tenuous and in the case of the Rangers, too injury dependent.  Once Stepan and Boyle return, we will start to see the true colors of this team, but until then, I feel like some random thoughts are more appropriate than digging into too much data or player performance numbers. I’ll be curious to see if your thoughts are consistent with mine during this time of upheaval…

  • Is it wrong that I was excited just to see that second win so things didn’t spiral out of control like last October?
  • Man, Lee Stempniak has been great. We all were fully on-board with the signing when it happened, but he has gotten off to a much better start than we could have reasonably expected.
  • Ryan McDonagh played over 30 minutes last night. In October. Loco.
  • Rick Nash is a monster. I had a feeling that the post-concussion symptoms were holding him back last season. He was horribly snake bitten in the playoffs, but has broken out again in a big way to start this year. Goals aside, he had made strong moves to the net, utilizing his size and reach with great results. If he can stay healthy, he will be an absolute force this season.

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BSB live chat 10.10.14

Live Blog BSB Live Chat 10.10.14
 

Friday chat reminder

Join me this afternoon for the first live chat of the regular season!  Plenty to discuss after yesterday’s opening night victory; Rick Nash’s big night, Dan Boyle’s injury, MSL at center, systems, whatever.  We will get started at 1pm, but make sure to stop by at 12:45pm and fill up the queue.  See everyone in a couple hours!

BSB live chat

Live Blog BSB Live Chat 10.3.14
 

Friday live chat reminder

I realized last night that the next time I post, the regular season will be under way.  Crazy.  Anyway, it’s been an interesting preseason, so let’s chat about it.  We’ll get going at noon, but make sure to stop by at 11:45am to start filling that queue.  We will talk Anthony Duclair’s exceptional performance, line combos, depth spots, whatever the people want.  See everyone at noon!

Keep an eye on Cedrick Desjardins

While we all know that the Rangers success lives and dies with Henrik Lundqvist’s health and performance (as it should), there has always been an undercurrent of concern from the Rangers fan base about a lack of overall goaltending depth in the system. With Martin Biron retiring and Cam Talbot graduating to the NHL, the problem has become more pronounced, especially with Talbot likely to depart after this season in pursuit of more playing time.

Slats & Co. addressed this issue to an extent by drafting Brandon Halverson and Igor Shestyorkin this past June. As exciting as those two prospects are, Halverson will continue to ply his trade in the CHL for the foreseeable future while Shestyorkin will be firmly planted in the KHL. This creates a serious gap in viable options in Hartford in the event of injury. Read more »

The on-ice style evolution of Henrik Lundqvist

The 2014-2015 season marks Henrik Lundqvist’s tenth NHL season. He broke in during the first post-lockout campaign in 2005-2006, and has commanded the Rangers crease ever since. While Lundqvist has been a noted style icon off the ice, his aesthetic choices on it have been far more divisive.

From 2005-2009 Hank was the poster boy for TPS Hockey (formerly Louisville). After an ill-fated merger with Sherwood, the King was scooped up by Bauer Hockey to be the face of their new One100 line, and he has been decked out in the company’s gear ever since.

While training camp has started and we will soon be awash with interesting hockey news and happenings, let’s indulge one more silly off-season post with a brief history of Henrik Lundqvist’s pad choices.

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Poll: what to do with Cam Talbot

Cam Talbot has been an interesting story since joining the Rangers in Marty Biron’s stead at the beginning of last season. An undrafted free agent who blew the lid off his ceiling and went on to have a mini-breakout season as Henrik Lundqvist’s backup. He put up tremendous numbers (12-6-1, 1.64 GAA, .941 sv%), and by virtue of his age, can become an unrestricted free agent at the end of this coming season.

Now, this puts the club in something of a pickle. He has an incredibly small sample size of games to judge his true talent level. What complicates things further is that most goalies of NHL caliber talent can put up quality numbers in a small set of games. What makes a starter is the ability to hold up that level of play over a fairly grueling 55-65 game sample. We have no idea if Talbot is up to that task, and unless something goes catastrophically wrong, we’re unlikely to find out this season. Read more »

A game of musical chairs entering training camp

It waits...

It waits…

With optional skates beginning to start and the Traverse City Tournament and NHL Pre-season just around the corner, we are almost ready to get excited about hockey again. One of the most interesting story lines of the pre-season will be opportunities for prospects and depth veterans to step up and seize important minutes. A game of musical chairs, indeed.

Most of us were fairly underwhelmed by the clubs work in free agency. Solid contributors to last year’s finalists Anton Stralman and Beniot Pouliot bolted for greener (read: money) pastures, defensive stalwarts Brian Boyle and Derek Dorsett are now employed elsewhere and Brad Richards’ buy-out saw him take a smaller money deal in the Windy City.

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