A grim reality hit me yesterday. August is almost over. Summer is ending. For some reason, summer always goes the fastest. But then again, with summer ending comes hockey. There is always a silver lining. Soon training camp will begin, and soon we will get a better look at how new coach David Quinn will run his show. And with that comes a potentially huge role for Pavel Buchnevich.
This is a big season for Buchnevich. He comes with huge hype and results that appear to have barely scratched the surface of his potential star power. His KHL numbers were on par with Evgeny Kuznetsov and Vladimir Tarasenko. His first two seasons in the NHL were also on par with those two stars. Now in his third season, there is an expectation that he is going to take the next big jump into stardom. That’s the optimistic expectation. But there are more realistic, and possibly pessimistic expectations that we must also come to terms with.
Optimistic Expectations
Buchnevich is expected to get top line minutes, probably with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. We are talking prime scoring shifts with a line that will hopefully come through this season unscathed by injuries. We haven’t seen a full season of this trio yet, and if their prior success is an indicator of future production, we might be seeing a 70+ point season from at least one –or possibly more– player on that line.
There’s also the possibility that with a newer system, one that preaches puck possession in addition to counter attack and prime chances, the Rangers spend more time in the offensive zone. More time in the OZ means more time to generate offense. In theory, that means a better chance of seeing that 70+ point season.
The biggest change will be on the powerplay. Buchenvich’s powerplay production went up by six-fold last season, from three points in 2016-2017 to 17 points in 2017-2018. With a more consistent role, and perhaps the fear of mistakes leading to benchings removed, is it out of the realm of possibility to see Buch jump to 25-30 points on the powerplay?
Realistic Expectations
While 70+ points is certainly doable, we haven’t seen enough consistency from Buchnevich that shows he will be able to put that kind of season together. However a full season of that trio together likely means an improvement on the 43 point season he had yesterday. Add in a system and coaching change, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t improve to a 50 points season.
What a 50 point season means for Buchnevich is likely top line billing with KZB, but PP2 time and some inconsistent play. It also likely means someone on the line gets hurt for some time, leading to bouncing line partners and some post-injury readjustments.
It’s a bit more realistic to assume that a line that hasn’t stayed healthy for two seasons will also deal with some injuries this season. That means more status quo, but with a 20% point production improvement still coming.
Pessimistic Expectations
What if Alain Vigneault was right about Buchnevich? He’s a head case, and too inconsistent to warrant top line billing. The team will ride his hot streaks, but he’s demoted to fourth line duties in a primarily offensive zone deployment. The fourth line for the Rangers still has enough skill for Buch to manage to match his production from last year, but the limited even strength time and demotion to PP2 limits Buchnevich’s point production.
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No matter where you fall on the Buchnevich fence, it’s tough to argue that this is a big year for the young Russian winger. Despite being a third round pick, Buchnevich came with big hype. He’s shown flashes of brilliance, but has yet to put it together consistently. A new coach should change that. I personally think he makes the jump to bonafide top line winger this season, but a lot of things need to go right for that to happen.
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