Photo: NHL.com
One of the major topics of the players still on the Rangers this season is how they are going to perform next season. There were a bunch of very high shooting percentages on the Rangers, and they’ve come into focus as August drones on. And for good reason, it helps us navigate whose season was for real, and who may be coming crashing to Earth.
Of course the big thing to remember here is that talent matters when it comes to shooting percentage. A bunch of folks automatically assume that a high shooting percentage will come down. And yes, most players will see some form of regression for abnormally high shooting success. But skill matters. Let’s keep that in mind.
The highest shooting percentage of the regulars belonged to JT Miller and Michael Grabner, both at 16.7%. Simply put, they will not shoot that high next year. Grabner’s career SH% is 12.5%, while Miller is at 13.2%. Both will likely see a dip in their shooting percentages.
However that doesn’t necessarily mean a dip in goals, at least for Miller. Miller only took 132 (Grabner took 162) shots last season. At a 13.2% clip, that’s 17 goals, five off from his 22 last season. However that 132 shots seems very, very low, doesn’t it? Miller is notorious for being a low-volume shooter, averaging around 130 over an 82-game pace. Perhaps more ice time, more powerplay time, and a larger role increases his shot numbers?
It’s a theory, but I’d really like to see Miller shoot more, especially if his possession numbers stay where they are now, pictured above. He’s not necessarily the best defender, but he can generate shots and produces points on par with a top-six forward.
Next on the list is Chris Kreider. Kreider had 28 goals on 186 shots for a 15.1 SH%, all three career highs. Kreider’s career SH% is 13.1%, so it’s not that far off from what he shot last season. If he shot 13.1%, he would have finished with 24 goals. He may crack 30 goals at some point in his career, but pegging him for consistently putting up 25 goals seems like a good bet. Couple that with those possession numbers, he’s a bargain at his current salary. I’m not worried about him.
I’ve been harping on Jimmy Vesey’s 13.1% shooting rate for a while. I have nothing to base his career average off of, so for all we know that could be his skill level. However his underlying numbers are pretty horrific. Of all the young guns, he’s the one I think will have a tough regression. If his play without the puck doesn’t improve, and that SH% regresses, then fans might not like the product they see.
It’s going to be a big year for a bunch of the young guns on this team. For Vesey, he’s going to need to rebound from his sneaky-bad year. For Miller and Kreider, they need to show they can take the next step and become consistent and solid producers. They’ve been taking steps in the right direction, so continuing to move that way is critical to the Rangers’ success next year.
All charts courtesy of http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/.
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