Free agency is upon us, with the big announcements coming later today. Who will end up where remains to be seen for now, so I figured a predictions thread might be in order. For this post I’m going to focus on the big three: Kevin Shattenkirk, Joe Thornton, and Patrick Marleau. I’m doing this for a couple of reasons. First is because those three are the ones I’ve been following closely, and I don’t want to throw out useless conjecture about guys like Jimmy Hayes, for example (although maybe this all is useless conjecture, depending on how you look at it, I don’t know). Second is because it’s a relatively week FA class, so those three names are likely to be the biggest ones you hear about anyways. Third is because those three are most relevant to the Rangers.
So here’s the thing with Shattenkirk: the Rangers would be stupid not to at least make a push, so no matter what Brooksie says I think there’s a possibility. It just makes too much sense – he’s the puck moving defenseman and PP QB they’ve needed for so long, and his defensive ability is actually quite good (7th overall in CA/60 over the past two seasons is not so bd for a guy who can also net you a lot of points and allow Ryan McDonagh to finally reach his potential). Buffalo is apparently out, especially after today’s Scandella deal, which leaves Boston (where he played in college), NJ and our very own Blueshirts, as well as a few other teams. Don Sweeney, the Bruins GM has said that his focus is on left defense, which makes them less likely, and NJ is close to home for Shatty and could throw a boatload of money at him, but according to Bob McKenzie NJ may offer more term but less money. Tampa Bay is also interested and may offer more money but less term, all while Arizona and Colorado remain interested.
This doesn’t sound great for the Rangers, but again it just makes too much sense and given that we have $18 million in cap space and a conveniently vacant spot at 1RD for Shattenkirk, plus Shatty’s desire to be close to home, I think ultimately he ends up with the Rangers.
Next we’ve got Jumbo Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau. I’ll admit that I’m an unabashed Thornton fan, so I’d really like to see this one happen, but I’m betting that it’s less likely than a Shattenkirk deal at this point. SJ allegedly remains at the top of his list, although a number of teams are interested, and he wants a three year deal, which they’ve been willing to give him in the past. Dreger reported that LA could be in the mix for Thornton as well, which adds an interesting wrinkle to this. Joe is apparently taking into consideration where Marleau goes, so that complicates things as well. I really can’t say I know where Thornton ends up, but it wouldn’t shock me if it were New York. Again, it just makes sense – we have a vacancy at center and a number of talented wingers for him to dish to all season. That doesn’t even go to the cap space, but term might be a sticking point here.
As far as Marleau goes, despite his excellent first name I doubt he winds up a Ranger. We’re chock full of wingers (I know he can play center too though) and while he is quick I’m not sure his scoring rate is something the Rangers are going to be impressed by. Dude struggled to find the back of the net at even strength last year, which I’m sure Gorton et al are aware of. Mike Babcock is also apparently making a hard sell for Marleau, and given the rising young talent there I could see him opting to be a Maple Leaf come fall.
So there you have it, my official predictions: Shattenkirk is a Ranger by day’s end, Thornton too maybe, but not Marleau (he’ll be a Leaf). Regardless of the outcome however, Jeff Gorton better have a plan. We simply have too much cap space to do nothing, and too many roster spots to fill to stand by idly. Henrik Lundqvist isn’t getting any younger, and the additions of Thorton and Shattenkirk would certainly put the Rangers up the bracket in terms of contending teams. If not those two, then somewhere in the league Gorts needs to go out and find two centers and a right handed top pairing defenseman, and that’s not going to come together on its own. Right now I’m feeling cautiously optimistic, but would feel a whole lot better if Shatty signed with the Rangers. Anyways, those are my thoughts – what are yours?
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