mika zibanejad

The offseason focus this year is naturally going to be on the expansion draft, and rightfully so. It’s the first time in the Twitter era that we will be able to watch it unfold on TV and on social media. While that is certainly going to be a focus, one of the key items on the Jeff Gorton’s To Do List is getting his RFA’s signed. The biggest RFA to get locked up is Mika Zibanejad.

Zibanejad was acquired last summer, along with a 2018 second round pick, in exchange for Derick Brassard and a 2018 seventh round pick. Zibanejad lit the world on fire in his first month with the Ranges, almost scoring at will before breaking his leg and missing 25 games. Zibanejad was slow to get his legs under him, and finished the season with a line of 14-23-37 in 56 games.

Averaging his line this year out to an 82 game pace, Zibanejad –had he played a full season at his 56 game pace– would averaged to a line of 21-34-55, basically on par with his 2015-2016 season in Ottawa. He woke up a bit in the playoffs too, putting together a line of 2-7-9 in 12 games.

The first step in gauging Zibanejad’s next deal is finding comparable contracts. He may carry a $2.65 million cap hit, but he made $3.25 million this year, so that’s his qualifying offer. A comparable contract is going to be a center signing his third contract who put up 50-60 points, signed at age 24, and with two years of team control left. It also helps to find someone with a comparable second contract prior to signing his third.

You don’t need to look far for a comparable contract. Derek Stepan signed his current deal, a six-year deal worth $6.5 million annually, at the end of his age-24 season when he had two years of team control left. It was his third deal, where he earned $3.85 million the year before ($3.075 million cap hit). He put up 55 points in 68 games (an 82 game pace of 66). The point pace may be off, but the rest is bang-on. Stepan likely represents the high-end of the spectrum

The next comparable deal is Logan Couture in San Jose. He signed his current five-year deal ($6 million cap hit) at age 24 with two years of team control left, which was his third contract. He made $3 million the year before, at a $2.875 million cap hit. He put up a line of 23-31-54 in 65 games, which is a 68 point pace over 82 games. The point pace again may be off, but the rest is comparable. Couture might represent the middle-high end of the spectrum.

Bryan Little of Winnipeg is a little bit of a reach, but can be used as a comparable nonetheless. He signed his third deal (five years, $4.7 million cap hit) at age 25, with one year of team control left. He made $3 million the year prior, with a cap hit of $2.83 millions. However he signed the deal after playing just 48 games the year before (lockout season). He did put up 7-25-32 in that span, which is an 82-game pace of 55 points. Little represents the low-end of the spectrum.

The last contract I want to use as a comparable is Jaden Schwartz in St. Louis. Schwartz’s third deal was signed at age 24, again with two years of team control left. The deal was for five years at a $5.35 million cap hit, a big pay increase on his $2.7 million salary and $2.35 million cap hit the year prior. Schwartz only played 33 games that year, but put up 22 points. That’s an 82-game pace of 55 points. Schwartz is likely the middle ground.

So where does this leave Zibanejad?

It’s tough to gauge a contract, especially when we don’t know what the cap ceiling is going to be. I had initially been pegging Zibanejad at five years and $5 million, but that might be a little bit low. I don’t think Zibanejad, coming off an injury, gets a Stepan-esque contract. I also don’t think he’s going to get a Bryan Little deal. That’s way too low. So the best bet is that he’s going to get about five or six years, somewhere between $5.25 million and $5.75 million. Naturally, this is going to fluctuate based on duration, but I think that’s a fair estimate.

But that, of course, is if Zibanejad gets a long-term deal. There is certainly a non-zero chance that the Rangers give him a short-term deal as a “show me” contract. They certainly have the wiggle room to do so with a one-year deal, as they’d retain him for another year of team control. If it’s a one-year deal –remembering that a two-year deal sends him to unrestricted free agency and no team control– I can see him getting about $4-$4.5 million. I don’t think they go that route, though.

The value of the Zibanejad contract isn’t necessarily in the dollar value, but in the cap space left. Unfortunately for Zibanejad, that is entirely out of his hands, as the Rangers have four defensemen that are negative assets. Each one that remains on the roster is fewer dollars in Zibanejad’s pocket. Given that, I expect him to be more towards $5.25 million than $5.75 million. Certainly worth it in my book.

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