Goals galore for the Rangers, but will it last?

Photo: AP

Don’t look now, but your New York Rangers are tops in the league in goal scoring (35) and tied for second in the league goal differential (+13). The Rangers have won games by simply outchancing, outshooting, and outscoring the opposition. The rebuilt forward group is deep, fast, skilled, and allows Alain Vigneault to run four lines capable of putting the puck in the net, seemingly at will.

This team has been incredibly fun to watch. It’s been a while since we’ve been able to say that about the Rangers, as they usually have been relying on Henrik Lundqvist to bail them out game after game. This year seems different, even if the outrageous scoring may not last.

Those 35 goals are in nine games. That averages out to close to four (!!) goals per game, and an 11.37% shooting rate. That won’t last. It’s not even a question. it won’t.I don’t think a team has average that many goals per game since the 1980’s. While that will drop, the Rangers haven’t exactly been getting stellar goaltending yet either. At a measly 91.4 SV%, Lundqvist and Antti Raanta have gotten off to slow starts.

The good news is that as the shooting percentage regresses to a relative mean of 7.5% at even strength, the Rangers will see their goaltending get better. So as the shooting success drops a bit, the goaltending will cover for it. In theory, those two should happen over the course of the season, which won’t take a huge hit on the overall winning percentage (it will, but not a major one).

But what about the players?

All numbers at even strength

Here’s how the Rangers forwards look in terms of SH%. Suffice it to say, a bunch of these players will not continue scoring at their current pace. Jimmy Vesey, Josh Jooris, and Michael Grabner are all converting on one-in-three shots at even strength. That’s crazy.

That said, Derek Stepan and Pavel Buchnevich are goalless this season. That won’t continue either. So while you expect Vesey, Jooris, and Grabner to come down to Earth, the reverse can be said for Stepan, Buchnevich, and any other Ranger with no goals.

It’s been an interesting start for the Rangers. Scoring has come from up and down the lineup at rates that appear to be unsustainable. However with some talented forwards still waiting to light the lamp and with goaltending still turning it around, perhaps the expected high-SH% regression won’t be as bad as in previous years.