Rangers not shopping Kevin Hayes, which is the right move

Per Larry Brooks, the Rangers are currently not actively shopping Kevin Hayes, a move that will probably disappoint more than a few people. Hayes has seen his name in the same category as Dan Girardi and Marc Staal as players fans want to see traded. There is a narrative among some writers and fans that is being pushed, and it has painted Hayes in a negative light.

Objectively, Hayes did not match his rookie campaign, there’s no denying that. But some reviews that he’s been a downright disappointment are, bluntly put, wrong. It’s sad that the linked article states that the Rangers’ hopes of signing Jimmy Vesey is the primary reason why the Rangers haven’t traded him. There is legitimately zero proof that the Rangers are indeed going in this direction or that they are holding on to Hayes simply as a negotiating ploy.

Before even jumping into the production, let’s get into the common sense bit here. Hayes is cost controlled. He won’t –shouldn’t– command more than $2 million on his next contract, which will more than likely be a bridge deal. The Rangers are in a cap crunch, and the going rate for a 40 point forward on the open market is $3.8 million. Replacing Hayes’ production with a UFA is basically impossible at that rate.

Another thing to remember: He’s 24 years old and has just two pro seasons under his belt. For a fanbase that wants to “get younger” and “develop their own prospects,” dumping Hayes doesn’t really jive. It’s completely illogical.

Common sense aside, the “lazy” argument is incredibly subjective. Sure, Hayes had some issues with not back checking every so often. It wasn’t on “every play” like some harsh critics state. But if we want to focus on players that didn’t back check 100% of the time, we’d have no forwards on the team. Every single forward had gaffes like that. The beloved Derick Brassard and Mats Zuccarello were some of the worst culprits. But they get a pass?

Getting into stats, folks expected Hayes to improve on his 17 goals last season. But the problem with looking at just goal totals is that it doesn’t take into account shooting percentage. Hayes shot a whopping 15% his rookie season, scoring 17 times on 111 shots. This year Hayes actually took more shots –so enough with the lazy argument that he passes up the shot– but shot at 10%, leading to just 14 goals on 133 shots.

Here’s how rookie season Hayes compares to sophomore season Hayes. His goal scoring dipped, as discussed, but his playmaking was static at first line production (per 60 minutes of ice time). Looking at shot generation/suppression, he actually got significantly better at suppressing shots. That improvement suggests that his defensive play got better, not worse. The Rangers are actually getting first line production from their third line center.

Yea, he stinks at faceoffs. I can live with that if the production remains at this level. Yea, he will forget to back check every now and then. So will everyone. With a major cap crunch this year, Hayes’ production will come about as cheap as it gets. Keeping him through his cost controlled years just makes logical sense.