Rick Nash carries a $7.8 million cap hit for two more seasons

Rick Nash carries a $7.8 million cap hit for two more seasons

This offseason is a critical one for Jeff Gorton and the New York Rangers. A team with significant holes and cap problems, the Rangers will need to get creative and possibly break a few fan’s hearts in order to get back to respectability and a true chance at the Stanley Cup. Because one thing is for certain, the team as constructed cannot win a Cup.

While much of the focus has been on the albatross deals to Marc Staal and Dan Girardi, there has been some focus on whether or not to trade Rick Nash. Nash’s $7.8 million cap hit is second to Henrik Lundqvist, and for some that means he should be the highest scoring forward on the team. We can get into the flawed logic of salary equals production, but that’s a discussion for another time. For now, let’s focus on what Nash brings to the lineup.

For starters, Nash is one of the best even strength scorers in the league. He is 14th in points/60 at 2.25 and is 8th in the league in primary points/60 (goals, first assists) at 1.93 since 2013-2014. So for that money, the Rangers are getting a top-20 even strength producer and one of the Rangers’ top possession forwards in that span. You add this to his ability to kill penalties exceptionally well, and you have a top-20 player over the past three seasons at two of three strengths.

Now the concern people have is that his point totals don’t add up. And therein lies the conundrum, as Nash simply doesn’t produce on the powerplay. I searched corsica.hockey for his P/60 rates on the powerplay, but gave up after the first four pages (200 players, same timeframe). That’s rough for Nash, and while part of the issues are because the Rangers’ have had a bad powerplay for a while now, Nash has never really been a powerplay producer. His career his in PP points is 29 (19-10-29) in 2003-2004.

The reason why most of the top scorers are up there is because they produce on the powerplay. Nash doesn’t. It’s as simple as that. While this isn’t ideal, his even strength and penalty killing play certainly balances it out. But the million dollar –or 7.8 million dollar– question is whether or not he is worth it at that cap hit.

This is where Josh’s PSAM tool comes in handy.  Here’s how Nash compares to his cap percentage (10%-11% of the cap ceiling):

nask 10 copy

When you look at this, you see that Nash is slightly below the scoring rates of those with comparable salaries. His CF%REL is just a wee-bit off, but that appears to be a blip on the radar. The rest of his possession numbers are solid. His shots-against metrics are indicative of the entire Rangers team, however.

So by looking at this, you can make the argument that even with his even strength play, Nash is still below his cap percentage production. For a team in a cap crunch, that’s not necessarily the best. But the funny thing is that while folks thing he is drastically overpaid, the reality is that he isn’t. Here’s how he compares to just one percentage point below his salary (9%-10%):

nash 9 copy

The possession numbers are again a bit off because the Rangers were a train wreck this year, but points production is back in line with his comparables. So at the high-end of each group, Nash is likely worth $7 million based on his even strength production. He’s at $7.8 million. Not that bad.

But again, most of the players in these ranges produce on the powerplay. Nash doesn’t. So is that worth it for the Rangers?

For me, it’s about value. Nash is very valuable to this team, and trading him is an immediate step backwards for the team. However, Nash can probably bring in significant value in a trade. If the Rangers can get good value, and I mean young players that can help now, then a trade should be explored. But dumping Nash just to get salary cap space is ill-advised. He’s still a great forward, even if slightly overpaid.

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