Should Kevin Hayes be a healthy scratch?

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Alain Vigneault stunned fans the other day when he called out Kevin Hayes’ work ethic and performance of late while confirming that Hayes would be a healthy scratch for the Rangers’ ECF rematch against Tampa Bay on Wednesday night. Given the kind of controversy this decision has provoked, it’s worth taking a closer look at some of the underlying numbers in evaluating Hayes’ status as a healthy scratch.

On a basic level, when looking at Hayes’ Corsi this season through 37 games as compared to last season through 37 games, this move is a bit of a head scratcher. Although Hayes’ CF% this year so far at 47.7% is lower than it was last year through the same amount of games, when he posted a 50.8%, it’s worth noting that the Rangers’ possession numbers have been tanking this whole season, and that Hayes’ relative numbers are actually better than they were last season. Looking at the relative numbers Hayes has a 1.2 relative CF% this season as opposed to 0.7% last season, making this move questionable from a shot generation perspective, given the Rangers’ struggles in that department.

His scoring chances stats don’t paint as favorable of a picture however, corroborating the fact that we still haven’t seen the kind of offensive wizardry that Hayes was prone to last year. In this regards he has a 43.5% SCF% this season through 37 games compared to 54.9% last year through 37, with the relative numbers being -2.6 and 4% respectively. This is concerning for a guy who’s supposed to be bringing offensive vision and playmaking ability to the table, although it’s definitely important to say that he’s had a variety of different line mates, which can be difficult for younger players early in their careers.

Still though, it’s true to a certain extent that we haven’t seen from Hayes the kind of dominant offensive ability that we know he can bring to the table. At his best, he’s using his deadly combination of size, speed, and offensive talent to find seams in opponents’ defense and weave together high danger scoring chances and scoring plays. What we’ve seen from him so far has been flashes of that, but there are times during some games when he’s much more invisible, even listless at points.

Of course despite all of this he’s 6-11-17 as compared to 5-10-15 at this point last year, and I still question his status as a healthy scratch (to say the least of the way in which AV called him out in the press). Although I won’t pretend to know what goes on behind the scenes, I don’t think that harsh words and inconsistent line mates are the kinds of things that set a young player up to succeed. Furthermore, although his scoring chance statistics aren’t as favorable this season he’s actually improved in shot generation, which given the Rangers’ struggles on that end makes scratching Hayes questionable at the very least.

Finally, in light of the Rangers’ difficulties this season it’s hard to believe that Kevin Hayes’ performance is what’s wrong with this team. When a coach is scratching a player like Hayes and maintaining a dedicated spot for Tanner Glass in the lineup, it’s hard to have faith in the overall decision-making and direction of a hockey club. Although it’s likely that Hayes will be back in the lineup soon enough I definitely share in the frustrations of some fans who see this move as one more example of bad process by the Rangers.