There are two teams that the “stats folks” are looking at as the next major PDO crash: the Rangers and the Senators. Both have abnormally high SV% and SH% while riding poor possession numbers. However the Rangers have Henrik Lundqvist and significantly more depth/skill. There are only two teams that have worse possession numbers than the Rangers, and one of them is Ottawa. Of course, the other is Colorado, who beat the Rangers in a terrible game the other day.
The Rangers are in the midst of a bad run, going 1-4-1 over their last six. But this goes beyond the record. They’ve looked like crap most of the season, with the past month or so being especially craptastic. It’s an entire team thing, but it really starts on the blue line. The defense needs to slow things down and make safe passes to start the rush. They are either homerun or bust, with bust being a lazy dump off the glass and turning the puck over. Ottawa isn’t a very strong team, so now is the time to get back to basics.
Sens Systems
Under Dave Cameron, the Sens have simplified their game a bit. They play an aggressive 2-1-2 forecheck, sending two guys in to pressure the puck. They sometimes leave them high in the zone, setting up two at the blue line and one at the red line to clog the neutral zone. In the defensive zone, the Sens play a strong side overload, which is similar to what the Rangers play. The difference is that the Sens go into a low zone collapse if the puck gets to the weak side point, whereas the Rangers switch to man when the puck gets deep.
On special teams, the Sens run a standard umbrella powerplay and a hybrid penalty kill.
Sens Lines
Mike Hoffman-Kyle Turris-Bobby Ryan
Shane Prince-Mika Zibanejad-Mark Stone
Curtis Lazar-Jean-Gabriel Pageau-Alex Chiasson
Dave Dziurzynski-Zack Smith-Chris Neil
Marc Methot-Erik Karlsson
Jared Cowen-Cody Ceci
Mark Borowiecki-Chris Wideman
PP1: Ryan-Turris-Hoffman-Stone-Karlsson
PP2: Ryan-Hoffman-Zibanejad-Stone-Karlsson
PK: Smith, Lazar, Turris, Zibanejad, Stone, Methot, Borowiecki, Cowen, Karlsson
Craig Anderson gets the start
Rangers Lines
Chris Kreider–Oscar Lindberg–Rick Nash
Kevin Hayes–Derick Brassard–Mats Zuccarello
J.T. Miller–Dominic Moore–Jesper Fast
Tanner Glass–Jarret Stoll–Viktor Stalberg
Ryan McDonagh–Dan Girardi
Marc Staal–Dan Boyle
Keith Yandle–Dylan McIlrath
PP1: Nash-??-Zuccarello, Brassard-McDonagh
PP2: Kreider-Hayes-Lindberg, Yandle-??
PK: Nash, Stoll, Lindberg, Moore, Fast, Girardi, McDonagh, Staal, Boyle
Henrik Lundqvist is in net.
Scratches/Injuries: Derek Stepan (ribs), Emerson Etem (healthgy), Kevin Klein (abdominal strain)
Crazy Prediction: Glass scores (leaving this here until he does).
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