Just two questions this week in the mailbag. You can submit questions for mailbags via the form on the right.
Michael: A couple days ago someone asked what was the link between zone start percentage and Corsi. So i got all the data from War on ice for each individual player for this season plotted relative zone start percentage vs Corsi for and fit a line on the data. Nothing mind blowing but thought it would be interesting to share with you guys. As one might expect better o zone starts leads to better possession numbers.
Thanks Michael. This is really good stuff here. I haven’t seen anywhere that has done this comparison yet. It makes sense that we see an increase in possession with increased offensive zone starts. What I also found to be interesting was that quality of competition has minimal effect on possession. It is quality of teammates that is a bigger driver. Zone starts is still the biggest driver, though.
This is a great chart to have. Thanks for running this.
Question from Twitter: Assuming production and play remained the same from here through the end of the year, would you trade anyone on this roster?
There are a few things here. First, there is absolutely no way that the production from the Rangers will continue. Henrik Lundqvist and Antti Raanta are playing to a .960 SV% at even strength. Oscar Lindberg is shooting 30%. Mats Zuccarello is shooting 25%. These numbers won’t last.
But playing through the hypothetical, if all execution/production remained the same, I would absolutely look to get rid of Marc Staal and Dan Girardi. They’ve been horrid to start the year, and those contracts are either currently brutal or will be brutal soon. In this hypothetical situation, I’d also look to trade Rick Nash. He’s doing the right things, but he’s not scoring yet.
That said, the hypothetical will not occur. Nash will start scoring. Goaltending will come back down to normal. Shooting percentage will come back to normal. Girardi and Staal will hopefully get back to playing passable defense.
It does make me wonder though: When the PDO crash comes, will the Rangers have gotten back on track enough to weather that storm?
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