marc staal

Staal (Photo by Jamie Sabau/NHLI via Getty Images)

The Rangers are off to their best start in history, but yet there is that sneaking suspicion that all is not well in Rangerland. Both Henrik Lundqvist and Antti Raanta have been forced to make highlight reel saves on a regular basis. Defensemen are getting burned to the outside, are getting caught out of position, and are hemorrhaging shots against at an alarming rate. When the SV% comes back down to Earth, and it will, the Rangers may find themselves losing games they should win.

Don’t get me wrong, this is a playoff team with elite goaltending and forward depth that is envied across the league. They are one of the top four teams in the Eastern Conference right now, up there with Montreal, Tampa Bay, and Washington. Any of those four can come out of the East. Wild cards like Pittsburgh and the Islanders also make things interesting.

Since the East is going to be a dog fight, the Rangers need to do everything possible to improve their performance on the ice and give themselves the best chance at winning that elusive Stanley Cup. That includes improving upon their bottom-third score-adjusted possession rate.

The best way to do this is to make slight alterations to the current defense. Long perceived as a strength, the defense has been surrendering 53 shot attempts per 60 minutes of play. That’s 20th in the league. Playing with a lead has some role in this, but these are score-adjusted measures. Adjusting for score accounts for the defensive shell.

Major overhauls aren’t necessary. Simple fixes like shaking up the pairings can work. It’s about getting the most out of the players on the roster, hiding their weaknesses and exploiting their strengths. The first step in solving a problem is recognizing there is one. The Rangers defense, as currently deployed, is not as strong as their reputation.

  • Dan Girardi is not a consistent top-pairing defenseman. In small samples, he has shown he can be paired with Keith Yandle and show improved performance. This is matchup-dependent though. Girardi still excels against players that prefer to gain the zone and cut to the slot, instead of using speed to burn down the boards. Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby fall into this category. In the right matchup, Girardi can still be effective in the shutdown role. However against speedier teams, he’s best used outside of that role. Perhaps it’s best to pair Yandle and Girardi and give them sheltered minutes against most teams. When Washington or Pittsburgh come to town, reunite McDonagh and Girardi for that particular matchup.
  • Considering Kevin Klein has been the best right-handed defenseman, it makes sense to pair him with Ryan McDonagh. The pairing was fine in small samples this year. While Klein isn’t the best option for top pairing minutes, he’s the best right-handed option on the team.
  • Dan Boyle, while effective in a sheltered role, has clearly lost a step. I’m perfectly ok with his rotation with Dylan McIlrath. In a vacuum, Boyle is far from the biggest problem on the blue line. However if you assume that Yandle/Girardi might get the majority of the sheltered minutes, then Boyle’s usage comes into question. Keeping him and McIlrath with Marc Staal is the only option left.
  • At some point, the team will need to see if Brady Skjei is a legitimate option for this season, especially if Staal’s issues persist this season.

Assuming the Rangers don’t make any major trades that involve the blue line, some minor changes need to be made to get the most out of their seven defensemen. What was once true two years ago may not be true anymore, and holding on to past performance in the hope that things turn around –without making any adjustments– is a recipe for disaster.

The fact remains that the Rangers are riding unsustainable goaltending, and the only way to weather the storm that comes from regression is to start limiting shot attempts with more regularity. Some prefer a major overhaul, but slight adjustments to deployment will help get the most out of the current roster.

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