chris kreider

Photo: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, the Detroit Red Wings signed winger Justin Abdelkader to a whopping seven year extension that comes with a cap hit of $4.25 million per season. Abdelkader was set to be an unrestricted free agent after this season, the final year of his four-year deal. His cap hit was $1.8 million, but this season he made $2.25 million. The 28-year-old winger has just one 20-goal season under his belt and sports a career line of 66-74-140 in 415 games. This contract puts him in Mats Zuccarello territory.

This leads us to Chris Kreider, who is going to be a restricted free agent after this season. While not direct comparables, the Abdelkader contract can be used as a reference point for Kreider’s agent in negotiations*. Kreider is four years younger, already has a 20-goal season under his belt, and has been a consistent presence in the top-six for the past two seasons.

*-The Abdelkader contract cannot be used as a comparable in arbitration, but can be used by his agent in negotiations outside of arbitration.

The Rangers are right up against the cap next season, with $53.2 million committed to just 11 players. Kreider is just one key player headed to restricted free agency (J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes) or unrestricted free agency (Keith Yandle). The solid contributions from Emerson Etem –also a restricted free agent– come into play as well.

Keith Yandle will cost about $6 million to re-sign. Kreider will likely cost $5 million. That’s $64 million to 13 players, with Hayes and Miller likely commanding at least $4 million combined making that $68 million for 15 players. Without trading a contract, the Rangers simply won’t be able to re-sign both and have enough money to appropriately dress a roster.

So why is Kreider potentially the odd man out, barring a trade? Two simple reasons: Depth at forward, and salary versus production.

The Rangers are stacked at forward. Most of these guys will be back next year. Of the UFA forwards (Dominic Moore, Viktor Stalberg, Jarret Stoll), only Stalberg is under 33 years of age. It’s possible any combination of these three will be back, but replacing them on the cheap won’t be too difficult. If you assume Etem eventually replaces Stalberg, then it’s just two over 30 players that need replacing. Pavel Buchnevich should also be coming to North America after this season.

When it comes to salary versus production, a step back and a look at the bigger picture is required. There is a risk involved with Kreider, with just one 20-goal season and a slow start to this season. But he is only 24 years old, and his combination of speed, size, and skill is incredibly rare.

We can use Josh’s new tool called PSAM (Player Salary Analysis Module), launching very soon, to compare Kreider to Abdelkader and Abdelkader’s new cap hit (6-7% of the cap ceiling).

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You can see that Kreider and Abdelkader are fairly comparable players. The 6%-6.9% range here is what the average player making that percent of the cap ceiling produces. In this case, $4.25 million sits in that cap range. Kreider’s production also falls into this average cap range.

To answer my question above, I believe Kreider is worth Abdelkader money, assuming a shorter term contract. Short of a 30-goal season, it’s tough to see Kreider getting $5 million as a restricted free agent. The fact that he is restricted may actually help to keep his cost down. The Rangers may actually have dodged a serious bullet with this Abdelkader deal.

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