A quick analytical look at the Rangers skaters

Photo: MSG

Eleven games into the 2015-2016 season, the New York Rangers are sitting pretty. They are 7-2-2, which puts them in a virtual tie for first place in the Metro Division –the Caps have one game in hand– and second in the Eastern Conference. The Rangers are scoring (31 goals) and their goaltending has been superb. Their defense has been shaky though, which is a bit of a concern.

Folks are pointing at the Rangers’ lack of possession, but the overall season number is skewed by a poor first three games. The team hemorrhaged shots, and it skewed their overall numbers as a team. But at the individual level, we get a clearer picture of who is struggling, who is unlucky, and who might be due for some regression.

Courtesy of war-on-ice

Looking at the forwards (minimum 100 minutes played), we see two things right off the bat. First is that Jarret Stoll and Dominic Moore are Alain Vigneault’s workhorses in the defensive zone. That’s a bit of an absurd deployment, and shows the level of trust AV has in the duo. You expect their possession numbers to be down –red circles, as opposed to blue for positive– with that deployment.

The second is that J.T. Miller and Oscar Lindberg are due for some serious regression. They are producing numbers, but that is due to high on-ice SH%, and they aren’t necessarily driving possession in a manner that makes us believe this production can continue.

The top-six of Rick Nash, Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes, Derek Stepan, and Derick Brassard is doing all that you expect of them when it comes to driving possession. When it’s just 11 games in, you look at process over results. They are doing the right things, so we should expect more production from them as the season continues. They might be a bit unlucky right now.

Courtesy of war-on-ice

As for the defense, this picture shouldn’t surprise many people. Kevin Klein has been so good. So, so good. Keith Yandle has been just fine as well. The duo that is struggling is Marc Staal and Dan Girardi, but that’s something we’ve covered a bit already. The jury is still out –at least for me– on Ryan McDonagh and Dan Boyle. McDonagh may have been weighed down by Girardi’s struggles, and Boyle by Staal’s.

As always, when we evaluate this early we have the standard disclaimer of small sample size alert. But it’s more about identifying the process over the results, as mentioned above. You want more from your third line, especially in sheltered starts. You also want more from your two most expensive defensemen, whether or not you agree with their contracts. The team isn’t smoke and mirrors, but they certainly have room for improvement.