Just one question this week, but it’s an important one. As always, you can submit questions for the mailbag by using the form on the right.

chris kreider

Kreider

Tyler asks: Do you think Kreider’s next contract will be close to Gustav Nyquist deal? I’d say those two are pretty close comparables.

That’s a difficult question to answer at the moment, since this season will play a large role in the contract Chris Kreider receives. This year, Kreider has a cap hit of $2.475 million, but is getting $2.6 million in salary. That means his qualifying offer will be $2.6 million. Nyquist’s new deal is four years at a $4.75 million cap hit.

Nyquist will turn 26 when the season starts, so his new contract buys two RFA years and two UFA years. Kreider will turn 25 in April 2016, so his new contract will also buy two RFA years, with any remaining term buying UFA years. Remember that unrestricted free agency is determined by the age of the player in June of the offseason, so Nyquist’s late birthday actually hurts him here.

Nyquist signed his deal after the 2014-2015 season, his second in a row with 25+ goals (28, 27) and 45+ points (48, 54). Kreider has just one season with 20+ goals and 45+ points, which was last season. Assuming continued progression for Kreider, he should finish somewhere in the 25-goal, 50-point range, which puts him in line for a Nyquist contract.

Assuming continued progress for Kreider is a safe assumption, as his production has gone up every season. But it’s not a guarantee. Injuries happen. Bad years happen. Bad powerplays happen. Then again, a 30-goal year is also possible. If he scores 30 goals, Kreider’s getting at least $5 million.

Nyquist is a good starting point for a comparable Kreider contract. But right now it’s too early to tell. His production this year will play a large role in his next contract.

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