Changing approach to rewarding youth should worry Rangers

Kreider is on the cusp of seriously cashing in.
(Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

The New York Rangers ought to be concerned and not necessarily because of Derek Stepan’s current contract situation but because of the looming contract issues that currently sit just over the horizon. The NHL annual free agency frenzy was surprisingly (and encouragingly) muted this summer but don’t let that fool you.

The leagues’ posse of general managers realised value for money wasn’t there, perhaps money and internal resources weren’t there to spend and as a result we saw a lot less head scratching moves made. However, some of the contracts that were dished out bordered on the ridiculous. And it starts with arguably the most exciting player to be moved this week in Brandon Saad who joined Columbus in a multi-player swap.

Saad is a great young player. He’s dynamic, he’s a burgeoning goal scorer and he’s a winner. He’s proven himself in the playoffs, albeit as part of an uber-talented, perhaps generational Hawks team. But here’s the issue I have. When did General Managers stop rewarding production and almost entirely focus on betting on the future?

Saad grabbed himself a 36 million dollar contract, at 6m per year from the Blue Jackets. His career highs were 52 points and 23 goals that he set this year both of which came on the back of 19 goals and 47 points from a season prior. Saad had 11 points in 23 playoff games that included 8 goals. Saad put together solid, but not spectacular numbers that of course, included some important goals but is all that 6m per year production? His playoff numbers the year before were actually better as he put up 16 points in 19 games.

Perhaps the real questions now are how much extra do general manager’s think you should pay for Stanley Cup winners and just how integral was Saad to the Hawk’s third cup in recent times?

I get it, Saad’s trajectory is pointing upward but, call me old fashioned, at some point players should still be rewarded for what they have done not what they could do and Saad’s body of work to this point does not warrant 6m. And here’s where the Rangers should be concerned. If that body of work truly is worthy of 6m, what could Chris Kreider expect next summer? The Rangers should be worried.

Like Saad, Kreider’s statistical trajectory is also pointing upward. While Kreider is two years older, he also established career highs this year of 21 goals and 46 points. That was after potting 17 goals and 37 points the season before. Again like Saad, Kreider also has established a reputation as a playoff producer. Kreider had 7 goals this spring and had 13 points in 15 playoff games the year before. The overall playoff numbers for both players are not far off identical: Kreider has 31pts in 60GP, Saad 34 in 67 though Kreider has more goals and more GWG.

Then there is Kreider’s size and speed that are always a major factor (whether good or bad). There are maybe just a handful of players in the entire league that possess Kreider’s rare combination of skill, speed, size and solid production – to this point. You know all of this will be talked up by Kreider’s agent next summer and given the trend in rewarding players, so they should be.

If Kreider puts together a 2015-16 season that most people think is well within his reach (30 goals, greater consistency) he’ll be entering contract negotiations with serious negotiating power and putting the Rangers in an unenviable position. The Rangers cannot lose Kreider but can they afford to keep him for 6m?

It doesn’t end with Kreider. What if Kevin Hayes has a strong second year? (a realistic scenario) What if JT Miller and Jesper Fast play the next year on their qualifying offers and then put in strong seasons and demand greater investments?

As general managers begin to reward young players with more money than ever before at earlier than ever points in their careers, the Rangers need to be wary of the changing times. Difficult times ahead for Jeff Gorton it seems.